2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship – Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

The PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week just outside Memphis, Tennessee, at TPC Southwind. The Tour has played here annually since 1989, but this is just the fourth year that it’s been in the lead-off spot for the playoffs. The playoff format shifted in 2023, moving this event from the top 125 to the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings. With Rory McIlroy skipping this week, we’re looking at just 69 players in this week’s field, with no cut.

After this week’s event, the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings advance to next week’s BMW Championship at Caves Valley, just outside of Baltimore, with the top 30 advancing to the Tour Championship at Atlanta’s East Lake Golf Club. No one loves the format for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The good news is that the staggered scoring format for the Tour Championship has been abolished, and we get (most of) the Tour’s best competing against each other for a few weeks in a row, so it’s better than nothing.

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The event’s winner has had a finishing score in the teens the past few years, but TPC Southwind can play harder than those results indicate. Multiple doglegs make the 7,243-yard par-70 track play longer, but we’re seeing these strong fields take a more aggressive driver-heavy approach compared to what we had seen here historically. Back in 2020, for instance, this event served as the PGA Championship tune-up event and featured a loaded field, and the driver usage that week was 69.1%, nearly in line with the PGA Tour average of 68.8%. Last year, driver usage spiked to 81.5%. The field is clearly finding ways to attack this course differently.

The course features zoysia grass fairways, which is a unique twist. We’re also looking at bermudagrass rough and Champion bermudagrass greens, all native to Southeastern United States golf. As a result, scoring chances are few and far between if you don’t find the fairway off the tee. Over the past five seasons, the GIR% from the rough is 42%, nearly 10% lower than the average PGA Tour event.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• Total Driving Hybrid (2:1 Distance From the Edge of the Fairway + Driving Distance)
• SG: APP (Small Greens – Last 12 Months)
• SG: BS (Water Danger – HIGH, Last 2 Years)
• SG: BS (Missed Fairway Penalty – AVERAGE and HIGH, Last 12 Months)
• SG: Total (Comp Courses)
• Par-4 BoB%

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

Even though the season is winding down, we’re still adding new tools and data to the site every week. Check out our new Rolling Averages view in the Rabbit Hole!

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s FedEx St. Jude Outright Targets

Viktor Hovland (25/1, FanDuel)

(“Without Scottie Scheffler” market)

Anytime we’re at a course where there’s a premium on ball-striking and around-the-green play is mitigated a bit, Viktor Hovland becomes a popular click. Last year’s winner, Hideki Matsuyama, ranked 68th out of 70 golfers in SG: ARG last season, losing 0.83 strokes per round. Hovland, who finished two strokes off the pace and in a tie for second, lost 0.28 strokes per round. Matsuyama won because he out-gained Hovland by over a full stroke per round on the greens, despite having similar ball-striking results.

Hovland’s ball-striking numbers have been excellent of late, particularly his irons, with his 12, 24, and 50 round rolling approach totals comfortably above his 100 and 200 round baseline. He’s also gained an average of 0.24 strokes per round putting on bermudagrass over his past 36 rounds.

Hovland finished ninth in my Rabbit Hole model this week, ranking inside the top 10 in five of the 14 metrics I weighed, including being the best approach player on Zoysia grass over the past three years, and strong performance on TPC Southwind comp courses like Innisbrook, PGA National, and TPC Sawgrass. I’m willing to pay a heavy tax to not have to sweat Scottie Scheffler‘s inevitability.

J.J. Spaun (33/1, FanDuel)

(“Without Scheffler, Schauffele, Thomas, and Fleetwood” market)

J.J. Spaun finished fifth in my model this week with no real weaknesses. The U.S. Open champ has three other top-3 finishes this season, and those came at three comp courses, TPC Sawgrass (2nd), PGA National (T2), and Waialae Country Club (T3). Spaun also finished T6 at the ZOZO Championship, a narrow track where accuracy off the tee is at a premium and also features Zoysia grass fairways.

Spaun’s lack of distance off the tee shouldn’t be a concern, considering he just won the national championship at a big ballpark like Oakmont. He’s a field-average putter on bermudagrass over a fairly large sample, but his putting is improved overall this season, up nearly a half-stroke per round versus the previous two seasons.

I’m not going out of my way to shop in this version of the “without” market, but it’s only two points (35/1 to 33/1) to include Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Tommy Fleetwood along with Scottie Scheffler here, so I’ll take four of 69 golfers and a ton of win equity off the board for that small of a price.