2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson- Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

The PGA Tour is back in Texas this week before next week’s Signature Event with the PGA Championship in a couple of weeks. This is the fifth year of McKinney, Texas’ TPC Craig Ranch as the host venue for the Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch rates out as one of the easiest tracks on the schedule, playing more like your local muni and less like a PGA Championship tune-up for the few top-tier players in this week’s field.

The elite tier loses its edge when a course plays as easily as this place projects to play, so my outright bets will come from further down the board. The TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 that can be stretched out to 7,569 after the changes made since last season’s event.

Several changes have been made to the course since last year. New tee boxes were added on six holes (5, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 14), which have increased the overall length of the course by 155 yards. As a result, TPC Craig Ranch is now the third-longest PGA Tour course.

Another significant change is the replacement of the 2.5-inch Bermuda rough with 3.25-inch ryegrass rough. While the greens remain bentgrass, the zoysia fairways have also been replaced with ryegrass. The fairways are wide, the green complexes are large, and all Par-5s are reachable in two. Overall, I’m focusing on approach play and birdie opportunities this week, hoping someone can scorch these bentgrass greens for four straight days.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the TPC Craig Ranch stats page, and the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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YouTube: Betsperts Golf

Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: Total (Easy and Very Easy Scoring Conditions + Long and Very Long Courses)
• SG Total (Easy and Very Easy Scoring Conditions + Weak and Very Weak Fields)
• SG: Ball-striking (Gaining on Approach, Easy and Very Easy + Gaining off the tee, Easy and Very Easy)
• Birdie or better%
• Rolling Approach form (Last 12, 24, and 36 rounds)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson Outright Targets

Mackenzie Hughes (45/1, FanDuel)

Mac Hughes’s recent results are trending toward a place that leaves very few outcomes. Hughes played well at the Valspar Championship, finishing T36 despite a poor opening round. He followed it up with a solid 10th-place finish in Houston and then a T3 last time out at the RBC Heritage. He’s gained strokes through the bag in each of the three starts, shooting in the 60s in ten of his past 11 rounds.

Hughes hasn’t flashed the massive putting ceiling that we’ve seen from him for the better part of the past decade, but I’m encouraged by the fact that he’s getting results in a more consistent and bankable way. He played well during the swing season, too, with four T8 or better finishes in five starts. This fall’s stretch and his past four starts leading into this week are the only times Hughes has gained strokes on approach in four consecutive starts since 2019. He’s added distance off the tee as well, something that served him well in Houston and will again this week at Craig Ranch. If the putter spikes, look out.

Michael Thorbjornsen (90/1, Bet365)

The jump from college golf to the PGA Tour is not an easy one, even for the former top amateur in the world, Michael Thorbjornsen. We have seen glimpses of elite golf from “Thor” since he turned professional, including a T2 at last year’s John Deere Classic and multiple T8 finishes during the swing season.

Thorbjorsen was in contention late on Sunday just two weeks ago in Puntacana but finished a shot off eventual champ Garrick Higgo‘s winning score. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Thorbjornsen teamed up with his former college teammate Karl Vilips, and the pair finished T4, making it back-to-back strong showings for Thorbjornsen.

Craig Ranch is a great fit for his game. He’s exceptional off the tee and one of the best in this week’s field on approach proximity from over 200 yards out, which is vital this week due to the length of the course. Thorbjornsen can also make birdies in bunches, ranking eighth in this week’s field in BoB% over the past 36 rounds played. This is as short as 60/1 in some places, so I’m happy subscribers and I were able to take advantage of the soft opening prices.

Jesper Svensson (100/1, BetRivers)

The Rabbit Hole doesn’t have a ton of actionable data for Jesper Svensson, who’s playing on the PGA Tour for the first time this season after earning his card with a strong 2024 season on Europe’s DP World Tour, but we’ve seen two elite skills from Svensson so far, and both matter this week.

Svensson is one of the longest players on Tour through the season’s first few months. He’s routinely averaging 15-20 yards more than the average golfer each week, which will play well at a driver-heavy track like Craig Ranch, where there’s little to no penalty for wayward drives. Svensson has also flashed some big-time putting chops. In 39 rounds in 2025, Svensson has gained 2 or more strokes putting in 26.47% of his rounds played, which tops this week’s field (min. of 20 rounds).

Sami Valimaki (110/1, FanDuel)

Sami Valimaki is in the middle of his best stretch of professional golf, and he heads to a course that plays a lot like the tracks on which he’s had the most success to date.

Valimaki has played well on long courses, particularly driver-heavy courses with a heavy lean to long approach shots. Events like Mexico, Farmers, and the Houston Open. He followed up his fourth-placed finish at Memorial Park in Houston with a T12 the following week in San Antonio and then really surprised me with a T18 in the Signature Event field at Harbour Town. He consistently gains strokes on approach and on the greens, the two most important elements to success this week at Craig Ranch.

Davis Riley (200/1, Caesars)

I’d have played Davis Riley at half of this price, and that’s basically where he’s priced now, though he’s even shorter at some shops. Riley is a streaky player, as we saw during his impressive win at Colonial last season, another Texas course. That win was one of the most surprising victories of the 2024 season, in part because he held off Scottie Scheffler to do it and also because it was preceded and followed by missed cut after missed cut.

Riley’s poor play continued this season, but he seems to have turned a corner. He’s made the cut in seven straight starts, something he hasn’t done since the summer of 2022, including a T6 in Puerto Rico and a solo seventh-place finish at the Valspar Championship. He even showed a pulse during his first Masters start, finishing T21, just missing low debutant honors by one stroke. As he’s shown, Riley has the pedigree and game to win on Tour, and I believe he’s found something in his game this spring. I’ll be looking to back him in weaker field events like this until he proves me wrong.