2025 Charles Schwab Challenge- Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

After watching the world’s best battle it out at Quail Hollow for the PGA Championship, a strong field heads down to Fort Worth, Texas, for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Though not a designated event, the field is still relatively strong, especially considering it’s the week after a major. As is the case for most starts in Texas, Scottie Scheffler is in this week’s field, which makes betting outrights a bit more complicated. More on that down below.

The PGA Tour has been coming to the legendary Colonial Country Club since 1946, and it’s held the test of time despite all the changes in the game. Precision is the name of the game, both off the tee and into these small bentgrass greens. Birdies are hard to come by, and historically, bombers have been forced to go less-than-driver more than most other tracks due to the many forced layups, doglegs, thick Bermuda rough, and tight tree-lined fairways.

We’ve seen an increase in driver usage off the tee over the past few years, a trend that will likely continue this week for some of the 132 golfers in the field. Not everyone has the apex and carry distance required to drive it over the trees to cut off the many doglegs at Colonial, but those who can likely continue to try. Regardless, as is often the case, approach play is paramount this week.

The course underwent a significant renovation prior to last year’s event, with renowned architects Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner leading the extensive makeover. The goal was to modernize the course and restore it to its original form. Every aspect of the course infrastructure, including an irrigation system, bunkers, tees, and greens, was addressed. Many trees and bunkers were removed to create a more open and well-lit course.

Additionally, most greens were lowered and made more receptive as targets. The renovation also included the incorporation of “barrancas,” or dry streambeds that channel water during heavy rain, on several holes. The biggest changes were made to holes eight and 13, both par 3s. We just have one year of data, so the jury is still out, but I don’t believe that the 2024 edition was significantly different from previous years.

Colonial Country Club is a par 70 course that spans 7,289 yards, making it an above-average length classical course. It features tree-lined fairways, numerous doglegs, and small greens. Notably, Colonial is the fifth toughest course on the Tour for gaining strokes off the tee. The fairways are among the narrowest on Tour, averaging only 27.5 yards in width, which makes it difficult to overpower the course.

Colonial also ranks as one of the toughest courses for making birdies, presenting a challenge to golfers year after year. It has the third-smallest average landing zone when considering both fairway width and green size, with a combination of 27.5 yards for fairways and 5,000 square feet for greens. Given its tight fairways and small greens, the course tests a player’s ball-striking skills extensively. With the sixth-smallest greens on Tour and the fifth most penal rough, there is a strong emphasis on effective approach play, particularly with short to medium irons.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Colonial Country Club stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: Total (Scoring Conditions – Very Difficult, Difficult, and Average)
• Distance From The Edge of the Fairway
• SG: Ball-striking (Gain OTT/APP – Very Difficult, Difficult)
• SG: Total (Par 70 courses, Scoring Conditions – Very Difficult, Difficult, and Average)
• Par 4 Birdie or Better%
• SG: P (Bentgrass)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

As we saw a few weeks ago at Craig Ranch, the calculus changes in the outright betting landscape when Scottie Scheffler is in the field. With Scheffler soaking up so much of the implied win equity, bettors have three options. First, remember that Scheffler is human and does not win every time he tees it up, even though it feels like that sometimes. Second, take advantage of the “Without Scheffler” markets that are offered by most sportsbooks. The odds shift drastically, but you don’t have to worry about Scheffler at all in these instances. Lastly, an option that I prefer, if available to you, is each-way betting. An each-way (or E/W) bet is one bet on the player to win and another bet on him to finish in the top X places (where X is usually 5 for most full-field golf events) at typically 1/4 of the win odds. That’s why you have to double your stake for an each-way bet. This is the best of both worlds, where you’re rewarded for picking the winner, but you can also make a profit if your golfer finishes within the E/W placings.

All of my picks this week are covering six places at 1/5 odds.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Targets

J.J. Spaun (50/1)

When looking at Colonial’s comp courses, places like Sedgefield, Waialae CC, Sawgrass, Harbour Town, PGA National, and Narashino, where accuracy is rewarded and positional golf tee-to-green is the recipe, it’s hard to ignore J.J. Spaun. A previous winner in Texas, Spaun is in the midst of his best season as a professional, and he’s contended at most of this week’s comp courses in the past year or two. He’s finished inside the top six five times in his past 20 starts, all of them coming at courses listed above.

Andrew Novak (66/1)

Prior to missing the cut at the PGA Championship after going full “Green Mile” on Friday at Quail Hollow, Novak’s form was about as good as you’d find on Tour over the past two months. He followed up a T3 in San Antonio with a playoff loss to Justin Thomas at Harbour Town, both corollary courses for Colonial. Mix in a team win at the Zurich, and a T17 at Philly Cricket, and Novak has found himself with Sunday afternoon tee times for every April and May start. He’s getting it done throughout the bag, which is why I think there’s some stability in his recent run.

Ryo Hisatsune (125/1)

This is a big number for the 22-year-old Japanese prodigy. After getting his feet wet on the PGA Tour last season, we’ve seen more of the upside that Hisatsune showed in Asia and in Europe as he was coming up. He finished inside the top five at the Valspar and Valero and then showed well against a Signature Event field at Harbour Town, finishing T18. Hisatsune is an above-average ball striker who’ll keep himself in position off the tee. If his putter gets hot, he’ll be in the mix.

Pierceson Coody (125/1)

There’s a lot of good family history for the Coody family here at the Colonial, and Pierceson is looking to add to it. Both his grandfather, the 1971 Masters champ Charles Coody, and his father, Kyle, have found success around these parts. Pierceson entered last year’s final round in a tie for third, and a Sunday 74 dropped him down to T5, nine shots off the pace. The former Texas Longhorn has been bouncing between the Korn Ferry Tour and the bottom rung of PGA Tour events this season. He started his year with three straight top-ten finishes on the KFT and posted a T25 in his last PGA Tour stop at Craig Ranch. He’s excellent off the tee, with plus distance and accuracy, and he has as much of a ceiling on the greens as anyone in this week’s field.

Lee Hodges (150/1)

Lee Hodges is scuffling right now, but seeing him down at 150/1, given his skill fit for this course, was something I had to jump on. Hodges has missed five straight cuts, but I was encouraged by his approach play last week at Quail Hollow. Hodges is also typically a field-average putter, but he’s been ice cold of late, which is what’s causing his string of missed cuts to add up. He’s going to keep the ball in play off the tee, which is half the battle at Colonial, and I think he can improve on last year’s T12 here.