2025 BMW Championship – Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

The second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and the top 50 remaining players head to Caves Valley Golf Club for this year’s BMW Championship. Located just outside of Baltimore, Caves Valley hosted the 2021 BMW Championship, where Patrick Cantlay beat Bryson DeChambeau on the sixth hole of their sudden-death playoff.

The best players in the world picked Caves Valley apart, but since the 2021 edition, it’s undergone an extensive facelift in order to better test this week’s field.

First, the course has been lengthened to 7,600 yards, and it’ll now play as a par 70. Also, the green complexes were redone, with a subair system installed to better control the speed and moisture after players complained in 2021 about the consistency of Caves Valley’s bent grass greens. The new greens will also bring more hazards into play and allow for more challenging pin locations. We’re also hearing that the rough should be grown out a bit higher after the field posted a GIR% that was nearly 12% higher than the tour average the last time they were here.

I still think we’ll see low scores and a driver-heavy approach from the field. Back in 2021, nearly 40% of the approach shots came from 200+ yards out, 42.9% more than an average tour event.

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For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• Driving Distance
• Par 4 Scoring Average (Long and Very Long Courses)
• SG: Ball-striking (Long and Very Long Courses)
• SG: Total (Par 70, Long and Very Long Courses)
• SG: P (Baseline putting and Bent grass putting)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

Even though the season is winding down, we’re still adding new tools and data to the site every week. Check out our new Rolling Averages view in the Rabbit Hole!

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s BMW Championship Outright Targets

Ludvig Aberg (16/1, FanDuel)

(“Without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy” market)

Scottie Scheffler was the runaway model darling of the week, ranking first in eight of the 15 metrics that I used, but I was intrigued by Ludvig Aberg, who ranked third overall for me. There was a bit of a post-Masters lull from Aberg, but he’s been much sharper of late, finishing inside the top 10 in two of his past three starts.

Aberg has gained strokes on approach and off the tee in seven consecutive starts. Some of his struggles have come around the green, but with the elevated GIR% rates here, I’m not factoring in scrambling skills much at all this week. Aberg ranks sixth in this field in driving distance over the past 50 rounds, and he’s arguably been the best long iron player in the world this season, not named “Scheffler”.

Aberg has also been an elite putter on bent greens, gaining 2+ (23.08%) and 3+ (15.38%) strokes putting on bent at the highest rates in the field over the past two years.

Cameron Young (20/1, FanDuel)

(“Without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy” market)

Cam Young followed up his win at Sedgefield with a solo fifth-place finish at TPC Southwind, carrying the strong momentum forward at the most important time of the year.

Young’s distance off the tee immediately puts him on the short list this week, and then you add in his recent ball-striking and putting numbers, and we have the recipe of a contender. Back when Young won the 2022 Rookie of the Year, he was getting it done with a distance advantage and elite putting. His putting was a mess for a bit, but he’s now gained strokes putting in nine straight starts stateside, and even through his struggles, he was always slightly above average on bent grass greens.

I’m riding the wave of Young’s positive momentum, end-of-the-year motivation, and ideal course fit.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (25/1, FanDuel)

(“Without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy” market)

Matt Fitzpatrick‘s run of four straight T8 or better finishes came to an end last week at TPC Southwind, but his game is a significantly better fit for what’s ahead this week at Caves Valley. Fitzpatrick carries plus distance off the tee and pairs it with one of the best long iron skill sets in the game.

Fitzpatrick seemed lost earlier in the season, but he’s put together a solid summer of exceptional tee-to-green play and has found his putter again at the same time. Over the past 24 rounds, Fitzy has averaged +1.39 strokes per round tee-to-green, up from the +0.15 he’s posted over the past 100 rounds. His putting numbers are trending as well, up +0.57 strokes per round over the past 24 versus 0.34 over his past 100. He’s also performed well on bent grass greens, gaining 1+ strokes in 40.91% of his rounds on bent over the past two years, the seventh-best rate in this week’s field.

Kurt Kitayama (40/1, Bet365)

(“Without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy” market)

Another recent winner on Tour who’s not cooling off is Kurt Kitayama. I thought he might profile well, especially given his recent putting performance, but I was surprised to see him coming out as the No. 2 golfer in my model this week. This is a driver-heavy setup, which is good news for Kitayama. Over the past 36 rounds, Kitayama ranks second in this week’s field in SG: Ball-striking. When you back it out over the past 12 months and look at ball-striking on driver-heavy courses, Kitayama remains in second, once again, trailing only Scottie Scheffler.

Kitayama has also feasted on long and very long par-70 tracks, leading this field in birdie or better rate and finishing third in overall par-4 scoring. That matters a lot this week, given the length of the course and the importance of par-4 scoring with just two par 5s on the scorecard. His best finishes this season, including his win in Minnesota, have come at driver-heavy courses with easier scoring conditions (T5 John Deere, T5 Byron Nelson).