2025 3M Open – Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

Scottie Scheffler‘s dominance and inevitability were on full display at last week’s Open Championship. As we return stateside, we get a two-week hiatus from Scheffler and the other elite golfers before the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

With just two events remaining leading up to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the pressure is on, with Tour cards, FedEx Cup points, and even Ryder Cup spots on the line over the season’s home stretch. While the field might be a letdown post-links swing, there are still plenty of betting opportunities on the board this week.

The playoff field moving from 125 to 70 a few seasons ago has put an increasingly large number of players on the bubble, and with just the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship left on the schedule, the chances to improve your position or punch your ticket are dwindling away. This change created a lot of drama down the stretch last season, and I’m hoping we see more of the same beginning this week.

That helps improve the strength of this week’s field as the Tour moves back stateside to Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71, 7,431-yard course that features bentgrass fairways and greens, native prairie grasses, and 13 water hazards in play that challenge golfers off the tee. Shockingly, stray drives that land in the water often lead to crooked numbers, and TPC Twin Cities annually has the most “water balls” out of any other course. 

This week, driving accuracy, distance from the edge of the fairway, and Bogey Avoidance are more premium than most other “easy scoring” courses. Even so, there should be numerous birdie opportunities and a winning score in the upper teens or higher. With the greens also playing very soft and receptive here over the years, it basically comes down to a test of who can keep their ball dry off the tee, followed by a ball-striking and putting contest.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

 

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YouTube: Betsperts Golf

 

Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: Total (L12 and L36 Rounds)
• SG: Total (Last 12 Months; Average, Easy, and Very Easy Scoring Conditions)
• SG: Ball-striking (Water Danger – High)
• Hybrid Total Driving (Distance from edge of fairway + Driving Distance)
• SG: APP (GIR% Average and Easy)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s 3M Open Outright Targets

Max Greyserman (35/1)

Max Greyserman‘s trip to the United Kingdom wasn’t a fun one on the course, but the good news is he was able to come home early after missing the cut at both events. The last time we saw him in the States, he battled Aldrich Potgieter in Detroit, before eventually falling short in a playoff.

While TPC Twin Cities has more teeth than some of its Summer Swing compadres, scoring is still on the easier side, and the field, albeit better than some years, is still on the softer side. And that’s where Max Greyserman has feasted.

Over the past 12 months, Greyserman’s 2.03 strokes gained per round average in average-to-easy scoring conditions against average-to-weak fields, laps this year’s 3M Open field. He played well here last year, finishing one shot off the lead after firing a final round 63. He had gained strokes ball-striking in five straight starts before heading to Europe, which I’m throwing out the window this week in hopes of Greyserman finally getting over the line late on a Sunday.

Jake Knapp (35/1)

Jake Knapp putted his way to a T22 finish in Scotland, his third straight T22 or better finish. There are a lot of Florida golf comps when looking at TPC Twin Cities, including PGA National, where Knapp rang the bell with an opening round 59 back in late February. Knapp also played well at TPC Sawgrass (T12) and TPC Louisiana (3rd), two other TPC layouts with water danger lurking all over the place. Vidanta Vallerta, host of the Mexico Open, is also considered a track with high water danger, and Knapp posted a T25 there this year after winning the event back in 2024.

Yes, he can bomb away without regard when called upon (T4 in Detroit), but it’s been encouraging to see him rein it in when need be. He pulled out in the middle of last year’s event, but he enters play this week in much better form.

Michael Thorbjornsen (40/1)

I’m pot-committed here, but at least I’m not chasing ghosts. Thorbjornsen has finished T4, T21, and T14 in his past three starts, and now sits higher up on the odds board on a course that highlights his elite total driving skills.

Thorbjornsen ranks second in the field in Total Driving over the past six months, and he’s gained strokes ball-striking in every start since the Valspar Championship back in March. His putter has not been nearly as consistent as it was in 2024, but he has gained strokes putting in three of his past four starts. I can’t sit out here on a course that fits his skill set when he’s sitting in the 40/1 range.

Emiliano Grillo (50/1)

I’m not sure what it is, but it’s pretty clear that Emiliano Grillo likes this TPC Twin Cities track.

After a slow start to 2025, Grillo has strung together some excellent performances of late, including four straight T25 or better finishes in May and June, and he nearly won a few weeks ago at TPC Deere Run (solo second-place). Over his past 24 rounds, he’s gained 1.05 strokes ball-striking, which is only slightly ahead of his 50-round pace at 0.97. He’s also become a reliable putter over the past few seasons, and when he struggles, it’s often due to his lackluster around-the-green skills, which rarely show up here.

If you’re avoiding golfers who made the trip to the U.K. in the past couple of weeks, I’d look long and hard at Grillo given his recent form and undeniable course history at TPC Twin Cities.

Victor Perez (110/1)

Out of all of the golfers that I’ve bet on this week, Victor Perez ranks highest in my model. If we’re making the Florida comp to TPC Twin Cities, which I agree with, Perez should be on your radar. Perez has back-to-back top 20s at PGA National, and finished T9 in his lone PLAYERS appearance back in 2021. Ron also made the case for Le Golf National as a comp course, host of last year’s Olympics competition, and Perez finished one spot off the podium, finishing in fourth place.

Perez routinely gains strokes off the tee with his accuracy, and his approach play has been excellent of late. When he struggles, he’s often bleeding strokes to the field around the green, and that’s a non-issue this week at TPC Twin Cities. We’ve seen a lot of triple-digit surprise winners here, and Perez is my favorite one this week. He’s also a great look at 3/1 for a T20 with ties included.