2024 Open Championship Betting Card Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
2 years ago
The best players in the world are in Scotland for the final major of the 2024 season, back at Royal Troon for the 152nd Open Championship. Troon last hosted the Open Championship back in 2016, which featured a unique matchplay-style final round with Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson pulling away from the field before Stenson eventually put Mickelson away on the difficult back-nine to hoist the Claret Jug.
The course has added a bit of yardage since the last time it played host to the world’s best, with Royal Troon now set to play nearly 7,400 yards from the tips as a Par-71. The out-and-back routing plays with a prevailing downwind to start the round, while the back nine plays longer and into the wind, where par is a desired outcome on nearly every hole.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, but there are none. Here’s an important tidbit about Royal Troon:
Fairway positioning and keeping the ball in play off the tee is essential for success at Royal Troon. The club motto here is “As much by skill as by strength.” Due to a high penalty for missing fairways, pounding away with driver comes with plenty of peril. With potentially windy conditions, anything too high in the air with excess spin will disappear into the deep foot-long fescue rough. The same result can also happen on low-binding shots that run through the fairway due to a poor angle off the tee. Fairway bunkers are among the course’s biggest defenses and are a true one-stroke penalty. They are dotted around the landing area, making strategy and accuracy off the tee paramount.
Fairways are tight on many holes, and on others, pot bunkers cut into play around the landing zones. Rolling ground contours tend to funnel balls into them, effectively reducing the size of what appears to be a generous landing area. In the 2016 Open, both Stenson and Mickelson took 3-wood or iron off the tee on almost every driving hole.
On approach, in these conditions and with greens so diminutive in size, hitting and even holding these targets is difficult, even with a wedge. Pinpoint accuracy in potentially tough conditions will be essential. On numerous holes, and especially the par 5s, revetted bunkers protect the narrow front entries of the greens, and on others, the sides of the putting surface are fortified with deep and menacing bunkers.
Greens are a mix of native bentgrass and poa annua and are much smaller than other courses in the Open rotation at an average of only 4,500 square feet per hole. Troon’s greens tend to be pinched in front and larger in the rear, so even when pins are forward, it’s often better to take an extra club and play toward the center. While putting surfaces are not as undulating as others, they have very subtle movement and, in firm conditions, can be difficult to hold.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. My full card and any live in-tournament bets will be posted here.
My top 5 key stats this week:
- Driving Accuracy Hybrid (2:1 Distance From the Edge of the Fairway + Driving Accuracy)
- SG: T2G (Links Courses, Last 5 Years)
- SG: APP (Long and Short-term form)
- SG: T2G (Missed Fairway Penalty – HIGH)
- Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Scoring Conditions, Last 12 Months)
Noonan’s Scottish Open Betting Picks
Collin Morikawa
I was on Collin Morikawa at last week’s Scottish Open, and while he didn’t get home, he certainly validated the selection. His T4 finish last week was his sixth T5 or better finish in nine starts since the Masters, a stretch that’s seen him finish no worse than T16.
Morikawa ranks second in my model this week, with no real weaknesses. He’s among the top 10 in every key category, highlighted by his elite driving accuracy, where he leads the field in DFEF (Distance from the edge of the fairway). Morikawa also has an excellent history of strong showing on Links-style setups, ranking third in this week’s field in strokes gained per round on Links courses over the last five years. The 2021 Open Champion missed the cut at St. Andrews and Liverpool, but his form leading up to this year’s event is night-and-day different, so I wouldn’t read into that at all. After tinkering with his swing, he’s gone back to his trusted fade, and it’s paying dividends.
- To Win: +1800 BetRivers
- Top 10: +188 BetRivers
Tony Finau
Tony Finau’s current form holds up toe-to-toe with nearly anyone in the world right now (ok, Scheffler aside). He’s posted three straight T8 or better finishes, with five consecutive T18 or better finishes. Four of those five events were either majors (PGA and U.S. Open) or Signature Events (Memorial and Travelers) so he’s doing this against the best fields in golf.
A quick glance at his rolling form is extremely encouraging:
Over his past 12 and 24 rounds played, you can see that he’s comfortably above his baseline rates at 50 and 100 rounds. The ball-striking and elite tee-to-green game is just better, but his improvements on and around the green are what make him a buy for me this week. We know who Finau is tee-to-green, but his short game has been such a liability at times over the past two years that he’s nearly impossible to trust. Given his current form, we now have one of the field’s best long iron and wedge players, along with a capable scorer when opportunities present themselves.
Finau’s track record at links courses is quite promising. He finished 18th in his first appearance at the Open, here at Royal Troon in 2016. Additionally, he finished ninth at Carnoustie, third at Royal Portrush, and T15 at Royal St. George’s. I also used the Rabbit Hole to look at who’s performed best when the wind gusts kick up (19+ MPH), and over the past three years, Finau ranks first in SG: Windy.
There’s a lot to like here, especially at his 50/1 or better price tag.
- To Win: 55/1 BetRivers
- Top 20: +225 BetRivers
Brooks Koepka
This is a late addition to the card. At a certain point, a price can drift way past a place that makes sense, and that’s where we’re at with Brooks Koepka. The 5-time major champ has yet to contend at a major this season, which comes as a surprise considering how well he competed in the biggest events on the 2023 calendar. He won in Singapore in May, leading into the PGA Championship, but that’s his lone win of the season.
A Koepka bet at a major can always be justified. He’s shown an affinity for showing up on the biggest stage of professional golf and leaving with the trophy. A young Brooks cut his teeth in Europe on the Challenger Tour while working for his PGA Tour card and has four career top-10 Open Championship finishes to his name. He’s comfortable in these conditions, and at 55/1, there’d be a lot of FOMO sitting on the sidelines, knowing he was available in this range. He’s sitting between 25-35 at most other books.
- To Win: 55/1 BetRivers
- Top 20: +175 BetRivers
Louis Oosthuizen
We don’t get much Louis Oosthuizen in our lives these days after he moved to LIV Golf, but the 2010 Open Champ is playing really well right now and is perfectly suited for the test that lies ahead at Royal Troon. Oostey is one of the most accurate off-the-tee players in the world, and that’s continued on LIV, where he ranks fourth in driving accuracy this season.
He’s coming off of a T4 finish at last week’s Andalucia event, which is his fourth T4 or better finish in his past eight LIV events (he WD from LIV Houston). Oosthuizen also won back-to-back DP World Tour events back in December, but his string of excellent golf has been out of sight, out of mind for most. That’s why he opened at 110/1 for this year’s Open, which should lead to some excellent (albeit useless) closing line value this week.
- To Win: 110/1 FanDuel
- Top 40: -115 DraftKings
Russell Henley
Russell Henley doesn’t have a pristine track record at Open Championships, but he’s just too good to be 170/1 in any field. He does have multiple top-10 finishes in majors, including the last time out at the U.S. Open, where he finished T7, along with a surprising T4 at the 2023 Masters.
On paper, Henley’s game is perfectly suited for what I believe Royal Troon is going to demand. He’s going to keep the ball in play off the tee, and he’s an exceptional iron player. His short game is vastly improved, and when you think about the scrambling element at an Open Championship, it closely resembles what golfers faced at Pinehurst (and Augusta National) with the shaved runoffs and short grass around the greens. You can make the case that he’s a better finishing position bet than a true contender, but the Open Championship has brought us down the betting board before, including Brian Harman last season, and there are a lot of parallels to Harman’s game and form heading into this year’s Open Championship for Russell Henley.
- To Win: 170/1 FanDuel
- Top 40: -110 DraftKings
