2024 Memorial Betting Card Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
2 years ago
With next week’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst on deck, the Tour’s best golfers head to Muirfield Village this week for the 2024 Memorial. The Jack Nicklaus design is a stern test of golf, and that, combined with Jack’s presence during the week, draws an elite-level field to Dublin, Ohio, every year. This year’s event is a small field signature event, with a post-36-hole cut down to the top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead despite this being a 72-golfer field. I wouldn’t compare Muirfield Village to Pinehurst aesthetically, but like next week’s U.S. Open test, in order to win or be in the mix come Sunday, it will require a golfer’s best.
The 2020 redesign and the subsequent tweaks have stretched the par-72 track to 7,569 from the tips, making it the fifth-longest on Tour. Like Augusta National, the fairways are generous, though tighter after the redesign. The rough is tall and thick if you miss the fairways, and the penalty for missing the fairway, even if you avoid one of the many hazards sprawled around the property, is very high. Players should also expect firm and fast, contoured bentgrass greens, with a premium on elite approach play from 175 yards out. Jack’s goal is to force the winner to use every club in his bag.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, but there are none. Here’s an important tidbit about Muirfield Village:
After the 2020 event, Nicklaus oversaw an extensive course renovation that saw new tees added on five holes, a complete reconstruction of the green complexes with bentgrass surfaces, and recontoured bunkers. The 15th hole was also completely rebuilt. This renovation also lengthened the course by close to 100 yards. In 2023, new tees were added on No. 16 and No. 17, which further lengthened the course by around 40 yards. The only change this year is the tee on No. 16 was moved 25 yards to the right, and a greenside bunker was removed.
With so many areas that the course defends itself, the margin for error is minuscule. Even slight mistakes can compound matters quickly, leading to bogey or worse. Looking back from 2016-2020, Muirfield Village played to an average score of 0.75 over par. When analyzing the last three years of data since the renovation, it has played significantly more difficult at an average of 1.12 strokes over par, ranking it as the second-toughest non-major course on the PGA Tour.
While fairways are generous, averaging 32 yards wide, there is a damaging penalty for wayward drives. Not only does water lurk throughout the course, but the 4″ thick rough is among the most penal on Tour. In fact, the course ranks as the toughest to play when missing a fairway or hitting into the rough.
Muirfield Village is the ultimate shots-makers course that demands precision on every stroke. Yet birdie opportunities can be gained if players can find the right quadrant on the greens. In 2022, not a single player in the top 13 gained less than 2.1 strokes with their approaches. Long-iron play will be paramount, with 49% of approach shots coming from over 175 yards. This is well above the Tour average of 44%.
With players missing greens almost half the time, scrambling opportunities will be plentiful. SG: ARG is the fourth most correlated stat to having success here. And it’s not just the 4-inch rough that gives players trouble; it’s the 68 bunkers that surround these greens, many of which are massive and deep.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week. As the banner above notes, weekly and monthly subs are massively discounted right now, so come check us out for cheap. I think you’ll find it to be a valuable addition to your weekly process.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. My full card and any live in-tournament bets will be posted here.
My top 5 key Rabbit Hole stats this week:
- SG: Total (Difficult Scoring Conditions/Long Courses)
- SG: APP (Gaining on APP Difficult/GIR Difficult)
- Driving Distance
- Good Drive % (Rough Penalty High)
- ARG Proximity
Noonan’s Memorial Outright Picks
Viktor Hovland
It wasn’t going to take much to convince me that Viktor Hovland was back and ready to shine again, but an exceptional ball-striking performance at Valhalla was enough for me to be all the way back in.
Last year’s Memorial winner gained over 3 strokes per round tee-to-green at the PGA Championship, gaining throughout the bag after reuniting with his 2023 swing coach, Joe Mayo, just prior to the event. If we’re getting late 2023 Hovland or even 90% of him, he’s likely too long at 18/1.
Hovland thrives when the conditions are tough, ranking second in this field in SG: Ball-striking (SG: BS) when the penalty for a missed fairway is high and third in the field when the rough is long. He’s also among the top five in total strokes gained average on long courses with difficult scoring conditions, all of which are key stat filters for my model this week.
Ludvig Aberg
I’m willing to pay the premium on Ludvig Aberg, who understandably might be tough to swallow for some at these short prices, considering he’s still seeing many of these courses for the first time. The sample is still relatively small, but the 23-year-old Swede plays his best against the world’s best competition.
He trails only Scottie Scheffler in this week’s field in total driving, a stat that highlights distance and accuracy off the tee, which are prerequisites to success at Muirfield Village. He’s coming off of a surprising missed cut at the PGA Championship since it was the first time in 16 events that he finished outside the top 30, dating back to last July.
Aberg is fourth in this week’s field in both 2024 strokes gained average and bogey avoidance, which is impressive for a young player and a huge reason he remains in contention on a weekly basis. I nearly clicked on him early Monday morning at 18 or 20/1 but was rewarded for waiting, thanks to FanDuel.
Hideki Matsuyama
We’re a few starts removed from the early spring heater that propelled Hideki Matsuyama up future odds boards prior to the Masters, but since his past two starts have been pedestrian at best (T38 Masters, T35 PGA Championship), we’re no longer paying those prices, as Matsuyama is available at 45/1 this week.
Your 2014 Memorial champion remains a great fit for this course, and you can make the case that his current game and this current post-reno Muirfield Village setup are a perfect match. Matsuyama has added distance back to his game off the tee this season but is still accurate off the tee. His lack of distance hurt him last season here, but he still managed to finish T16 and was one of the only T20 finishers not to gain off the tee.
Over the past two years on long courses with difficult scoring conditions, Matsuyama ranks fifth in this week’s field in total strokes gained average. He’s also ninth in this week’s field in SG: APP on courses where it’s difficult to hit a Greens in Regulation (GIR), and Muirfield Village’s 52% rate in 2023 was the hardest on Tour. With scrambling inevitable due to the low GIR rate here, it’s nice to have Matsuyama’s around the green game, where he’s gained strokes in a field-best 75.6% of his rounds in 2024.
Max Homa
It’s obvious that Max Homa is struggling with his driver right now, and this is not the place you want to come to when that’s the case. Still, I’m willing to back Homa at these depressed odds because the rest of his game aligns with his standard exceptional play.
Homa ranks fourth in this week’s field in average strokes gained total on long courses with difficult scoring conditions, and outside of his two wins at the Fortinet Championship, you can make the case that all of Homa’s best golf has come under the “long and difficult” umbrella. He didn’t tee it up here last year, but he finished T5 in his last appearance here back in 2022.
At this point, anything north of 40/1 on Homa is tough for me to pass on, so getting this number out to 55/1 is exceptionally strong.
Will Zalatoris
I’m not sure if it’s injury-related or not, but Will Zalatoris is not playing up to his high standards; that much is inarguable. He’s made four starts since his T9 finish at the Masters and has finished outside the top 40 in all four. We haven’t seen him since his T43 finish at Valhalla, where he flashed his standard elite iron play despite the rest of his game leaving a lot to be desired.
This is a pure bet on talent play for me, given the price. Though I understand why it’s drifted a bit from his standard 30-40/1 range, this is a bridge too far. He missed this event last season but finished T5 here back in 2022.
