2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Card Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
2 years ago
The PGA Tour is back in Texas this week before next week’s Signature Event at Quail Hollow as we ramp up for the PGA Championship in a couple of weeks. This is the fourth year of McKinney, Texas’ TPC Craig Ranch as the host venue for the Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch rates out as one of the easiest tracks on the schedule, playing more like your local muni and less like a PGA Championship tune-up for the few top-tier players in this week’s field.
The elite tier loses its edge when a course plays as easily as this place projects to play, so my outright bets will come from further down the board. The TPC Craig Ranch fairways are wide, the green complexes are large, and all Par-5s are reachable in two. Apparently, they didn’t like the 50%+ birdie rate on hole no. 12, so that was changed from a 547-yard Par 5 to a 493-yard Par 4 last year and will remain in play this year. Overall, I’m focusing on approach play and birdie opportunities this week, hoping someone can scorch these bentgrass greens for four straight days.
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This is a great week for the customization available via the Rabbit Hole. I’m focusing on golfers who enter in solid form, but I’m focusing on performance in five key splits this week when building out my model:
-courses with easy/very easy scoring conditions
-long/very long courses
-driver-heavy off the tee
-low missed fairway penalty
-birdie or better rates
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about TPC Craig Ranch:
Featuring easy scoring conditions, few hazards, wide-open fairways, and large receptive greens, TPC Craig Ranch is a prototypical TPC course. It certainly fits the eyes of K.H. Lee, who won this event in two of the three years in which the tournament was held here. With an average winning score of 25 under par, it is a birdie-makers paradise that inevitably boils down to a putting contest. Along with “spike putting” ability, long-iron/wood approach play is the key “separator” when determining golfers to target this week.
TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 course that can be stretched out to 7,414 from the championship tees. In the first two editions here of the Byron Nelson, it played as a par 72. Attempting to make the course less scoreable, the 12th hole was shortened from 547 yards to 493 yards and plays as a par 4 instead of a par 5. It’s a track where length off the tee certainly helps as it ranks as the 10th longest course on Tour.
Everything off the tee is easier at TPC Craig Ranch. With the lack of hazards and non-penal rough players are free to bomb away with driver. Most of the fairways are routed around the meandering Rowlett Creek, and players have little fear of any danger. With the eighth widest fairways on Tour at 37 yards on average, this course is the seventh easiest to gain strokes off the tee. Because wayward tee shots are rarely penalized it becomes second-shot target practice into the greens.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.