2024 BMW Championship Betting Card Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
2 years ago
The second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and the top 50 remaining players head to Castle Pines Golf Club for this year’s BMW Championship. Located just outside of Denver in Castle Rock, Colorado, this Jack Nicklaus design presents a unique test for this week’s field. The PGA Tour doesn’t play at elevation often, at least not to this degree. Remember that fact when looking at the daunting 8,130-yard distance on the scorecard.
Along with the thin air, we have multiple drastic elevation changes on this scenic track, so don’t get caught up in the length too much. The Par-72 layout should play to a more realistic range of 7,400-7,600 yards when you factor everything in.
We’re flying blind regarding the difficulty and strategy that golfers will face this week, but let’s share what we know. Water comes into play on about ten holes, some off the tee and others on approach. The greens, a mix of bentgrass and poa, are on the smaller side and should play firm and fast. The rough should be grown out, so I’m working on the assumption that there’s a decent penalty for missing the fairway off the tee, though to what degree, we still don’t know.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here are a few interesting nuggets about Castle Pines:
While Castle Pines will set a PGA Tour record for length, measuring 8,130 yards, the ball travels around 10% further at the course, which is 6,300 feet above sea level. Expect ShotLink to pick up some flattering superpower-type distances off the tee this week. In the past, the course has typically played at just over 7,600 yards, but the club added 600 yards to lengthen the championship tees. Removing the distance gains from the altitude, Castle Pines will play to around 7,300 yards, which is in the average range compared to other par 72 courses on Tour.
Fairways vary in width, with some being expansive and others bottlenecking near the landing zones between 300-325 yards. Judging proper distance and lines off the tee will be crucial, considering the numerous uphill and downhill tee shots, water hazards, deep fairway bunkers, and crowned fairways that camber to one side. Early reports have the rough at 4+ inches and growing. The rough is a blend of Kentucky bluegrass, tall fescue, and perennial ryegrass.
Available in 46 states, we are excited to announce that we have partnered with Rebet to bring you an easy way to claim a FREE, no-strings-attached year at Betsperts Golf (a $249 value), plus a 100% deposit match up to $100!
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. My full card and any live in-tournament bets will be posted here.
My top 5 key stats this week:
- Total Driving Hybrid (2:1 Distance From the Edge of the Fairway + Driving Distance)
- SG: APP (Last 8, 24, and 50 Rounds)
- SG: BS (Course Length – LONG and VERY LONG, Last 12 Months)
- SG: BS (Missed Fairway Penalty – AVERAGE and HIGH, Last 12 Months)
- SG: SG (Green Speed – FAST, Last 12 Months)
Noonan’s BMW Championship Betting Picks
Viktor Hovland
It’s been a disappointing season on the whole for Viktor Hovland, and his journey to take good to great has been a rocky one. After a dominant end-of-the-season run in 2023, where Hovland won the last two legs of the FedEx Cup playoffs and was the best player in Europe’s Ryder Cup victory in Rome, it was jarring to hear that he was trying to rebuild his swing in the offseason. There have been pops of Hovland’s 2023 form in 2024, including last week at TPC Southwind, and I’m looking to ride that momentum here at a great price.
Hovland led the field in ball striking last week, finishing inside the top four in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. Despite his struggles this season, no golf has shown more ball-striking upside in 2024 than Viktor Hovland. I know that’s wild to say, given the years that Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are having, and while those two are far more consistent, they haven’t reached ceiling outputs as often as Hovland has. No one’s gained 4+ or 5+ more strokes ball-striking at a higher rate than Viktor Hovland has in 2024.
His around-the-green game is still an issue at times, but he truly can mitigate that issue in weeks when he’s dialed in tee-to-green. He also gained 0.83 strokes per round on the greens last week, and by the numbers, this week’s bent/poa blend is Hovland’s preferred putting surface. There’s a lot to like here, and the early 28/1 on Monday morning was a great price in a tough 50-man, no-cut market.
To Win: 28/1 (BetRivers)
Tony Finau
Tony Finau was a late addition to my card last week after his number floated out past 40, and I was happy to scoop up another position on Big Tone this week, grabbing a 35/1 on Monday morning.
Finau’s ball-striking has been exceptional all season, and the putter has kept him out of the winner’s circle, but the tide is turning a bit. Finau was flat to the field on the greens last week but had gained at least 0.43 strokes per round putting over the five events leading up to TPC Southwind. He’s also an above-average putter on this week’s bent/poa mix, which is an added bonus.
Finau’s struggled a bit with his driver lately, but most of his poor SG: OTT numbers are tied to a windy second round at the Open Championship, so I’m willing to look the other way. The rest of his game is dialed in.
Finau ranks fourth in my Rabbit Hole model this week, driven by strong approach play, both long and short-term, and his performance on long and very long courses. Outside of the missed cut in Scotland, Finau has been near the top of the leaderboard in each of his past seven starts, finishing no worse than T17. I think he contends again this week, and I liked the opening price at 35/1.
To Win: 35/1 (BetRivers)