2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Card Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
2 years ago
The Florida swing continues at Bay Hill for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill offers a stern test of golf, and historically, the winner comes from near the top of the betting board. The top of the betting board has been kept out of the winner’s circle this season, but that feels likely to change this week. This year’s signature status whittles the API field down to just 69 golfers, with the Friday cut set at the low 50 and ties, or as we saw at Riviera, anyone within 10 shots of the lead.
Despite being a healthy 7,454 yards from the tips, Bay Hill plays even longer than the scorecard would indicate. Despite that, distance advantages off the tee are mitigated because of the multitude of forced layups and doglegs throughout. Forced layups off the tee create a ton of long approach shots, and this week’s field will face a higher rate of 200+ yard approach shots than any other week this season. In 2023, just 29.1% of approach shots at Bay Hill were from 150 yards or closer, significantly lower than an average Tour event. Bay Hill’s lightning-fast, rock-solid Bermuda greens complexes feature run-offs that make the green difficult to hold, creating a lower-than-average green in regulation rate every year.
Bay Hill typically features some of the longest rough on Tour each season, and the fairways can also play fast. Don’t be surprised to see excellent tee shots roll into the rough or, even worse, the water. The 2015 redesign brings water into play on 11 of the 18 holes. And then there’s the wind. It’s always a story at Bay Hill. Be sure to check back on Wednesday for an updated weather report.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Bay Hill:
After the new superintendent, Chris Flynn took over, Bay Hill received a minor facelift in 2015. Fairways were widened, and tree numbers were reduced, making the off-the-tee game somewhat easier. On the flip side, the course did get tougher because Flynn shaved off a great deal of rough surrounding the water and bunkers, making it far easier for balls to roll into hazards in the typical firm and fast conditions.
The last big change to the course happened two years ago. Players arrived at Bay Hill and were surprised by the sight. Most of the sloping run-off areas from around the greens had been replaced with thick three-inch rough.
As is typical of most Florida courses, Bay Hill has 84 bunkers and nine holes with water danger. The water hazards have contributed to the course having the highest percentage of penalty strokes on Tour over the past three years. The course also typically plays very firm and fast. Throw in penal overseeded ryegrass rough, and golfers who are missing fairways and greens will consistently be scrambling for pars and bogeys.
So much of succeeding at Bay Hill comes down to leaving the ball in the correct spot, playing the proper angles, and staying patient. This is why course history matters so much here. The best way to know where to keep the ball in the fairway and on the greens is to have played in these conditions at Bay Hill previously. 16 of the past 19 winners had played in at least three Arnold Palmer Invitationals.
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There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.