2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Preview – Plantation Course at Kapalua

After a six-week hiatus, PGA Tour golf is back! Happy new year to all those in the Betsperts Golf family and to everyone who is reading this. There is no better place to kick off the 2023 calendar year than the warmth, beauty and lush green grass of Hawaii at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Much like in baseball, with the start of spring training in the Florida and Arizona sunshine signifying the coming end of winter, the Tournament of Champions represents golf’s rebirth and another year full of intrigue, fierce competition, and the crowning of new and old champions. While this event has always had a strong field, it takes on added importance this year as one of the new “elevated events” with a much higher purse than before.

Since 1999, the Tour has kicked off the new year with this tournament which has been held at the Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort near Lahaina on the island of Maui. Kapalua is where paradise and golf meet. Once the site of a large pineapple plantation, it’s such a unique course that on the first tee you can see whales breaching in the distance, and on the 18th tee can smack a 450+ yard drive. Thanks to the wind and elevation changes, it is one of the few courses on earth where the yardage on the scorecard is irrelevant on so many holes.

This compilation of the world’s best golfers is a unique, no-cut, small-field event, played on a low-scoring par 73 course that has expansive fairways, numerous elevation changes, and gusty coastal breezes. Thanks to the combination of easy-to-hit fairways and greens, it’s one of the most genuine birdie fests on Tour and it favors the best mid-to-long iron players and the hottest putters. It plays the complete opposite of a target-style golf course. The allowance for creativity and multiple options for each shot makes it a fun track to play. Players with every shot in their bag who can maneuver the terrain and manage the wind will best position themselves for success at Kapalua.

After a wind-blown 2020 where the winning score by Justin Thomas was only 14-under par, the past two events have seen scoring return to the more common finishing number of 25-under or lower. Cam Smith took birdie-making to another level in last year’s tournament winning with an event record of 34-under.

The Field

39 players, including 17 of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking, are set to compete at Kapalua where the Plantation Course will celebrate its 25th year as tournament host. The field for this event is solely comprised of the different PGA Tour winners from last year along with any other players that finished in the top 30 of the final 2022 FedExCup Playoffs and Eligibility Points List. It kicks off the “Hawaii Swing” (which concludes with next week’s Sony Open) and is meant as a paradise of escape from the cold winter enveloping most of America by providing the best players on Tour with a rewarding experience at the Kapalua Resort.

With everyone in the field coming in with at least a month off from competition, it’s always interesting to see which players have been grinding away back home over the break and come out sharp in the first round. The resort setup is meant to help the pros ease back into the grind after (mostly) putting their clubs away over the holidays. Last year’s champion, Cameron Smith started hot by leading after round one and ended up going wire-to-wire for the victory.

Past Sentry champions that will be teeing it off this week include Justin Thomas (twice), Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth. Smith (along with a few other golfers) is ineligible to play this year due to joining the LIV Golf League. All of the other top-ranked players in the world who qualified will participate this week with the exception of Rory McIlroy who has once again decided to skip this event and begin his season in Abu Dhabi in a few weeks.

Course History

The Plantation course at Kapalua was the creation of famed architects Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw. Designed in 1991, the course is laid out over an immense area of terrain on the lower slopes of the volcanic West Maui Mountains. The scenic 677-yard 18th hole was the original hole that was designed with the rest of the course being built around it.

Sitting on 240 acres, the rugged terrain presented a huge challenge as Coore and Crenshaw had a number of valleys and gorges with which to deal. According to Coore, the massive resort course was built on such a huge scale to accommodate the wind and the slope of the mountains. As we will get into further below, the course can be very challenging, but not because of the design choices. The build elements were kept very minimal by the architects in order to let the natural geography and weather create the difficulty.

The course received a renovation (or as Coore called it “a rejuvenation”) in 2019 that was meant to restore the layout to its original condition. “We look forward to the opportunity to restore many elements of the Plantation Course and implement a few ‘refinements’,” said Coore. “It’s like when you have a special piece of art, or something really special to you, and you get a chance to dust if off and make it new again. This will be a very thoughtful restoration and refining process, but it’s not a redesign. We are very happy with the way the course looks and the way it has gone through the past nearly three decades.”

In reality, almost every part of the course was modified in the $12 million project including tee boxes, fairways, bunkers, and the green complexes. Repositioned bunkers and new tee boxes are in response to the distance gained by professional players since the course was built. The entire course from tee-to-green was replanted with Celebration bermudagrass which is a more durable playing turf for the conditions of the island because it can be mowed shorter and better protects against the year-round trampling the course receives.

Every single green was rebuilt and resurfaced with TifEagle bermuda. The greens had dramatically shrunk over time since 1991 so they were expanded back to their original size. This also allowed for more pin positions to be utilized. After the renovation was completed, Bill Coore said this about the changes around the greens, “The idea at Kapalua always was to land a shot 60 yards short of a green and let it roll on. In recent years, a ball landing 20 yards short of a green would just stop. It will play differently this year. Players will be able to use side slopes to feed shots to a flag. And drives will roll out farther, sometimes closer to trouble.”

Another of the main goals of the turf change was to increase the firmness of both the fairways and the greens. The thought was that the course would play a bit more challenging moving forward. It appeared that might actually be the case as Justin Thomas won the 2020 event with the highest score since 2006 at only 14-under. But that was mostly attributed to gusty winds which occurred that week. With a year of foot traffic under its belt, along with calm winds, the greens were softer than expected in 2021 as the scoring average dropped to its lowest average in a decade at 69.3. And then last year, three players broke the 30-under mark with Cam Smith setting the course record.

Past Leaderboards/Weather

Finish Position and Strokes Gained History (2015-2022)

The Plantation Course at Kapalua

Located on the north shore of the Hawaiian island of Maui, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is a unique Par 73 coastal parkland layout that measures 7,596 yards. It is the 9th-longest course in the annual Tour rotation and sits on a spacious tract of mountainous land. From the breathtaking views overlooking Honokahua Bay to the 500 feet of elevation difference between its highest and lowest points, the course is a spectacularly scenic place to host a highly competitive event comprised of a majority of the world’s best golfers.

Due to a number of factors, Plantation has the well-deserved reputation of being one of the lower-scoring courses on Tour relative to par. Since beginning on Tour in 1999, the winning score is typically in the low-to-mid 20s under par. There have been outliers, of course, with Thomas and Smith’s victories that were separated by 20 strokes. Over the past five years, it has ranked as the second-easiest course on Tour at -2.62. While there are plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities, the course still offers plenty of potential challenges including coastal winds, uneven lies, and expansive tiered greens.

Though it is a parkland course with plenty of trees, they don’t crowd the fairways. While there are zero holes that bring any type of water danger into play, there are 93 bunkers (fourth-most on Tour) that litter the course. There are also a few canyons with heavy vegetation and penalty areas to contend with. But even more challenging to golfers this week is the ability to manage three factors that could cause trouble – elevation changes, massive greens, and the strength of the wind.

While it is located on the coast, it is the mountains that define Kapalua. The resort’s Plantation Course was built on the slopes of the West Maui Mountains. This terrain creates large undulations throughout the course as golfers progress up and down the elevation changes throughout their round. In fact, the course has the largest amount of elevation changes on Tour. Patrick Reed remarked that all the awkward lies, blind shots, and elevation changes force players to be more engaged and creative in their shot-making throughout the week.

Kapalua’s Bermuda rough measures at 2.5″ long but poses little threat to golfers as the average proximity to the hole is only three feet further than from the fairway. The mammoth Bermuda greens at Plantation average 8,700 square feet. Combining the size of the greens with the typical gusty winds makes the course one of the toughest on Tour for proximity to the hole. This, in turn, increases the potential for three-putts and bogeys on certain holes.

However, the main defense the course offers is in the form of the prevailing east-by-northeast trade winds which can make certain holes much more difficult and which tend to increase as the afternoon progresses. Players who have more experience in windy conditions, especially those who can control their ball flight will have a definite advantage. As you can see by the historical weather data above, these are not light and variable breezes, but gusts often exceeding 25 mph that can wreak havoc on the course.

Hole Analysis

As the only par 73 course on the PGA Tour, Plantation is composed of three par-3s, four par-5s, and 11 par-4s. Not only are the par-4s and par-5s among the easiest on Tour, but they are also among the shortest at an average of only 450 yards per hole. In total, the course features eight par-4s that play under 425 yards, making a strong wedge game a key area for success. That being said, Kapalua is also the only annual course that has seven total holes measuring over 500 yards.

Because the prevailing winds rarely change directions, there are also three par-4s that are over 520 yards. Coore and Crenshaw wanted to be fair with yardage. This is why the downwind and downhill holes are significantly longer than normal. The first hole, for example, is a downhill 520-yard par-4 that regularly sees drives over 350 yards. Amazingly, even the 12th hole, which is a 424-yard par-4, is sometimes driveable off the tee as you can see in the video below which shows perhaps the best drive in Tour history. On the flip side, the holes that play into the wind are short and uphill.

Being able to take advantage of the par-5s will also be a key target point at Kapalua. Three of them measure at 550 yards or shorter, and the enormous 677-yard 18th hole plays straight downhill. Because of this, an eagle is in play on these holes for every golfer in the field.

Speaking of the signature 667-yard 18th hole, the view down the fairway and out to the ocean with Molokai in the distance has become one of the Tour’s most recognizable views since the PGA Tour started kicking off the season here in Kapalua. If simply looking at the scorecard it seems impossible to think that even professional golfers could reach the green in two shots. But with a steep elevation drop down the fairway golfers can hammer mammoth drives with ease as the ball just keeps going and going and going.

Since 2003, there have been over 150 drives of over 400 yards on this hole. In fact, Tiger Woods blasted his longest-ever drive, a 498-yard bomb on this hole at Kapalua during the 2002 Tournament of Champions, which remains the longest drive in PGA Tour history recorded by ShotLink.

Strokes Gained Analysis

Event previews this year will be digging into the data more than ever before. Like in the “Scoring” chart in the section above, I will be analyzing the most important metrics each week and then seeing how valuable each ranked in relation to the winner and others’ finishing position. The higher the value the darker the green will be which shows the importance of that particular statistic.

The “Correlation” chart shows how many Strokes Gained (SG) from each category (for the entire field) were correlated to a player’s SG: Total. The higher the average, the more important that area is to success. I have also included the 5-year PGA Tour course average for each metric to allow for easy comparisons to the current event. As you can see, Driving Distance is a huge advantage at the Plantation Course while Driving Accuracy means little.

Also included will be the SG: Total average by finish position along with the value (based on the field size) for the winner, and those in the top 5 and top 15. As you can see below, the last five winners of the Sentry Tournament of Champions were very successful both off the tee and on the greens. Those in the top 5 and top 15 ranked highest in SG: Approach while SG: Around the Green was least important all-around by a good margin.

Taking it even one step further, here is what the winners and top 5 finishers at the Sentry Tournament of Champions averaged per round in each strokes gained category in the year of their victory at Kapalua. You can see that a majority of these players had a highly-effective approach game with SG: OTT not far behind.

Off the Tee

With the second widest average fairways on Tour (50 feet) and numerous downhill sloping holes, players will be teeing it up on a course that allows the 5th-highest driving distance. Combine that with driving accuracy at 75.2% and you have a golfer’s dream scenario off the tee. In the “Season Rank” chart at the bottom of this section, you can see that both bombers and wildly inaccurate drivers have had great success here.

With fairways so spacious and no real danger or hazards near the landing zones, players are free to bomb away, which definitely favors the longer hitters. As was covered above, players will hit some of the longest drives of their life this week. That being said, even shorter hitters will get extra distance here thanks to the sloping fairways as the likes of Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, and Harris English have won here in past years.

Out of the 80 Shotlink-equipped PGA Tour courses that have been used since 2015, the Plantation course ranks as the easiest to gain strokes OTT and the second-easiest to find the fairway. Golfers who find the rough also have little to worry as Kapalua’s “long grass” is the third-easiest to play from.

Approach

Overall, players are hitting the greens in regulation at Kapalua at a clip that is 10% higher than the Tour average. On the rare occasion, the fairway was missed off the tee, players are still hitting the green an astounding 65% of the time from either the rough or fairway bunkers. The Tour average from a missed fairway is only 51%. This confirms two facts we already know: The 2.5” Bermuda rough is not a threat, and the greens are so massive that even poor approach shots have a chance to find their surface.

With the potential for coastal winds, combined with the large undulating greens, there is a premium on precise approach play in the form of proximity to the hole. And when analyzing the data, it is clear that hitting the ball close to the pin is very difficult at this course. Players on average leave the approach shot almost four feet further from the hole than on the typical Tour course. With most of the greens open in the front, bump-and-run type approaches in order to keep the ball low in the wind are an advantage for those who can pull them off.

Approach Shot Yard Ranges

As far as the approach yardage ranges, there is an above-average rate of short and long approaches. Looking even closer, from 50-100 yards there is a 46% increase compared to the average Tour course. 29% of all approaches will be from wedges. With all of the lengthy holes at Kapalua, the 200+ yard range will also see an even higher overall number at 32% compared to the Tour average of 28%.

According to the “Rank Average” chart below, while there are tons of shots from wedge range, you don’t necessarily have to be a great wedge player to have success at the Plantation course. The data shows that it is better to be strong from the 175+ yard range both during the week of the Sentry and also as a skillset in general as winners over the past five years have been the best from that range throughout their winning season.

Around the Green and Putting

This is one of the few “birdie-fest” events where certain holes require competent play around the greens. But instead of trying to get up and down for par, some golfers will be instead scrambling for birdies. That’s because four of the par-4s are under 390 yards, potentially leaving bombers with short wedges into the greens. And also, golfers that miss when going for the green on the par-5s will typically be left with shots from less than 30 yards to the pin.

While sand saves are slightly more difficult at Kapalua, historically, other shots from around the green (30 yards or less) are among the least frequent on Tour. Golfers that do miss the green will mostly be dealing with closely mowed areas that will test a player’s ability to chip the ball close to the hole on these mammoth greens.

The main facet of the short game that definitely will be tested is putting on these challenging Bermuda greens. Using the Course Stats Average sheet above, we can see many areas of the putting game that make these greens some of the more difficult ones on Tour. While putts inside of five feet are easier, every distance beyond that only increases in difficulty. One-putt % is among the lowest on Tour, and three-putt % is also tougher than average at 3.19%. Some reasons the lag putting is so demanding is that the Bermuda grain and different slopes make putts very tough to read. With the stimp meter measuring at a slow “10”, players also have to factor in the wind to the force of their putting stroke.

The greens here are also still relatively new as the TifEagle Bermuda turf was laid in 2019 with fewer severe contours and slopes. One final important note to mention based on the greens change is that putting over the last two events has been the easiest it has been over the last 10 years. The 3-putt rate from 2021-2022 was only 2.07 % along with a putting average of 1.716. If that trend continues we could see another winning score in the 30-under or lower range again this week.

Most Important Stats For Success at the Plantation Course

• Birdie or Better %
• Driving Distance
• SG: APP
• GIR %
• Par 5 Scoring
• Par 4 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance
• Proximity 175-200 yds
• Proximity 200+ yds
• SG: Putting (Bermuda)

Early Weather Forecast – Honolua Bay, Maui, Hawaii