2023 RBC Heritage Betting Card Picks and Preview

With the world’s best golfers already in the area after last week’s Masters, most are making the short drive from Augusta, Georgia, to Hilton Head, South Carolina, and Harbour Town Golf Links, one of the many Pete Dye-design tracks on Tour.

After two years with little to no wind and record-low scoring, things got back to normal last season, with Jordan Spieth knocking Patrick Cantlay off in a playoff with a winning score of 13-under-par. Harbour Town couldn’t be further from last week’s walk around Augusta National. It’s often described as quirky and suffocating, with narrow sightlines when standing on the tee box. Another Pete Dye design staple is the forced layups and doglegs to minimize distance and reward accuracy. The putting surfaces are difficult to hit, not only because they’re the second-smallest on Tour but also because a lot of second shots are impacted by dangling palmetto tree limbs, even for those in the fairway. Scrambling matters because missed greens are inevitable, but it’s one of the easier places on Tour to get up and down because the course is so flat, and the small greens make for fewer 50+ feet lag putt opportunities.

With this being an elevated event, the field looks quite different from your standard RBC Heritage. Looking back at the 2020 year, when everyone showed up because they were just coming out of the Covid-induced hiatus, it’s important to remember that it was played in June versus early April. In June, the Bermudagrass is active everywhere on the course, but in April, golfers are playing on overseeded ryegrass and putting on Bermuda that’s overseeded with Poa Trivialis.

This week’s player archetype for success starts with elite approach play with a focus on Good Drive%, a hybrid stat combining driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Also, the winner will either putt lights out or scramble their proverbial ass off all week. Probably both. This setup brings more golfers into play, with four of the last six winners being 80/1 or longer heading into the week. Designated fields certainly change the calculus a bit with that trend, but it’s something to note.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Harbour Town:

Characterized by numerous doglegs, overhanging trees, a wide array of devilish bunkers, and minuscule greens, Harbour Town Golf Links is a coastal par-71 course that measures 7,191 yards. 

There are numerous reasons the course has averaged over par since 2016. With trees being everywhere, drives off-the-tee that are not hit to the proper location on the fairway could be met with hanging branches on the following approach shot. Water comes into play on nine holes, with six of those affecting approach shots. Also, the second-smallest greens on Tour combined with a course that is exposed to the wind from the Atlantic coast can cause GIR% numbers to shrink rapidly on blustery days. 

Players will need to be creative and ready to hit a variety of differing-shaped shots into the greens. Harbour Town is the ninth toughest course to gain strokes on approach and the fifth toughest to gain on shots from greater than 150 yards. With 48% of approaches coming between 150-200 yards, this week will be a true test of iron play.

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My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on! 

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing. 

*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.