2023 John Deere Classic Betting Card Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
3 years ago
It’s time to throw on a green mesh hat, crack open a few silver bullets, and turn on some Billy Ray Cyrus to prepare for this week’s John Deere Classic. It’s a track that’s seen a wide array of skill sets take home the title over the years, but fairways and birdies are always the main ingredients. TPC Deere Run gets a bad wrap because the field often resembles a swing season event, but the course is more interesting than some of the other so-called birdie fests out there. Cam Young is the lone top-20 golfer teeing it up this week, but 19 of the OWGR’s top 75 are making the trip to the Quad Cities this week.
Located on the Illinois side of the Illinois/Iowa border along the Mississippi River, TPC Deere Run features wide sloping fairways, receptive bentgrass greens, and numerous elevation changes and doglegs. It is very scoreable for players who excel at managing their way strategically around the course instead of trying to overpower it. Winners have eclipsed the 18-under mark in each of the last 13 tournaments, so strong recent results from the low-scoring Travelers and Rocket Mortgage are a good place to start when looking at the betting board this week.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here are a few interesting nuggets about TPC Deere Run:
Even with generous and forgiving fairways that average 37 yards wide, TPC Deere Run is typically not a course that bombers can overpower. It is tree-lined but not tight. Laying up and staying away from dangerous areas is the best strategy for numerous holes. Straying from fairways is costly as the course is protected by the aforementioned thick 4″ penal rough along with strategic fairway bunkering and creative mounding that causes uneven lies. With numerous doglegs, being able to shape the ball off the tee is an advantage.
Showing again how important it is to find the short grass off the tee, approach shots from the fairway have an average proximity to the hole of 29.5 feet, while approach shots from the rough average of 46.7 feet. This “Rough Penalty” margin of 17.8% is one of the largest on Tour.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the subscriber-only Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
Noonan’s John Deere Classic Targets
Eric Cole
After a solid finish to the 2022 season on the Korn Ferry Tour, Eric Cole’s strong performance back in February at The Honda Classic put him on most’s radar this season, and the late-bloomer has kept himself in the mix all season long. He’s been incredibly consistent with his irons, a skill set that’ll keep you in contention at any venue, and his middle-of-the-road off-the-tee game is mitigated a bit at TPC Deere Run.
Over the past 24 rounds, Cole tops this field in birdie or better rate. He gives himself a ton of looks each week, and he carries a strong baseline putting skill set that matters when low-scoring numbers are required. He’s also very adept around the green, ranking third in this field over the past 24 rounds in SG: Short-game, which combines around the green and putting. The opening 40/1 price disappeared quickly, but he’s still an excellent play at or around 30/1.
Alex Smalley
Despite a poor putting performance at last week’s Rocket Mortgage, I’m going back to the well on Alex Smalley this week. He was fifth in SG: APP in Detroit but lost nearly five strokes on and around the green for the week, leading to his T47 finish. The week prior at the Travelers, Smalley posted a slightly above-average performance on and around the greens and finished inside the top 10 against an elevated field. A repeat of that short game performance with his standard ball-striking numbers against this field, well, now we’re cooking.
In terms of stats that matter this week, Smalley checks many boxes. Over the past 24 rounds, he’s among the top 10 in this field in SG: APP, Good Drive%, Par-4 Scoring, and SG: T2G. His elite tee-to-green game will provide him with enough birdie opportunities to win this event, and his opening price of 45/1 was good enough to attract multiple outright bets from our staff.
Taylor Moore
I’ve backed Taylor Moore a handful of times this season but wasn’t on him last week after three straight missed cuts leading up to the Rocket Mortgage. I definitely had a bit of FOMO after it was quickly evident that he found his putting stroke again in Detroit. If he would’ve pieced together his best ball-striking day with even an average putting performance, he could’ve made it a four-man playoff, but he had to settle for a T4 instead.
On top of being the best putter in the field not named Denny McCarthy, Moore flashes with the driver from time to time, mixing in plus distance with above-average accuracy. The wider-than-average fairways at TPC Deere Run help too. He gained strokes on approach in three of his four rounds last week, a double-bogey on the Par-5 14th hole did him in on Friday, and if he can avoid the blow-up hole, he’ll contend again this week.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlays
Russell Henley and Denny McCarthy – T40 (-104)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
Henley and McCarthy are my preferred options at the top of the board, but I couldn’t get there based on price when this field is loaded with discount versions of them at triple the price. I still expect a strong showing from both players.
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