2023 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch – Preview

The PGA Tour heads back to the Lone Star State for the AT&T Byron Nelson and one final tune-up before the PGA Championship. Located within the community of Craig Ranch in the Dallas suburb of McKinney, Texas, TPC Craig Ranch is the host course for the third consecutive year. The event dates back to 1944, and in recent years has moved all over the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex with both Trinity Forest and the TPC Four Seasons Resort also hosting.

Featuring easy scoring conditions, immaculate turf, few hazards, wide open fairways, and large receptive greens, TPC Craig Ranch is a proto-typical TPC course. It certainly fits the eyes of K.H. Lee who has won this event in both years in which the tournament was held here. With winning scores of 25 and 26-under par, it is a birdie-makers paradise that inevitably boils down to a putting contest. Along with “spike putting” ability, long-iron/wood approach play is the key “separator” when determining golfers to target this week.

The Field

Traditionally, the Byron Nelson has typically had a weak strength of field. That changed last year as numerous elite players participated with the following week’s PGA Championship only 200 miles to the north in Oklahoma. This year’s field is surprisingly strong as well with many players competing this week in preparation for next week’s major at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. For many lesser-ranked players, it represents their last chance to qualify for Oak Hill by winning this tournament.

Overall, 12 of the top 50 and 25 of the top 90 in the OWGR will be in attendance at TPC Craig Ranch including Texas residents world No. 2 Scottie Scheffler and No. 19 Tom Kim. Hometown star and world No. 10 Jordan Spieth withdrew on Monday with a wrist injury. K.H. Lee also returns to defend his consecutive titles and looks to join the nine other PGA Tour players since World War II who have won the same event three straight years. Other notables in the top 50 include Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Hoge, Jason Day, Seamus Power, Si Woo Kim, Adam Scott, and Aaron Wise.

Finish Position and Strokes Gained Course History (2021-2022)

According to DataGolf, course history at TPC Craig Ranch is the least predictive out of all courses on Tour.

Course Features

Featuring gently rolling hills, mature woods, and the ever-present Rowlett Creek which crisscrosses the course 14 different times, TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 course that can be stretched out to 7,414 from the championship tees. This is a change from the scorecard of the first two years when it played as a par 72 course. Attempting to make the course less scoreable, the 12th hole was shortened from 547 yards to 493 yards and will play as a par 4 instead of a par 5. It’s a track where length off the tee certainly helps as it ranks as the 11th longest course on Tour.

Designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, it has sprawling fairways (8th widest on Tour), few hazards, and larger than average flat greens. The first two events at TPC Craig Ranch have been the definition of a birdie-fest. Longshot, K.H. Lee bettered his 25-under winning score from 2021 with a 26-under mark in last year’s title defense. Overall, the course has played as the third easiest on Tour at 2.61 strokes under par. It put up such little defense that only five holes average over par, and it finished with the highest birdie-to-bogey ratio at 2.20. All in all, it is a scorer’s paradise that will come down to ball striking and a putting contest on the greens.

As far as defense, the course puts up very little resistance in any area. While Rowlett Creek is present on many holes it does not actually threaten players in most instances unless they spray their tee shot. The only other real threat to tamper scoring would be the gusty winds that courses in Texas have a reputation for. Looking at the weather forecast, heavy rains are supposed to pound the area on Wednesday which will only soften the greens and allow for target practice on approach. As of now, winds are supposed to gust between 15-25 mph on each day of the tournament. That might be the only chance of keeping the winning score below 25-under again.

This week we have a veritable mixture of three types of grasses. The fairways are Zoysia grass which is a spongey turf that is somewhat similar to Paspalum. The ball tends to sit up higher on Zoysia and is either loved or hated by players. TPC Southwind and East Lake are other courses with Zoysia fairways.

The rough is Bermuda and has been increased in length to 2.75” inches in order to toughen the course further. Bermuda rough is typically the toughest to play from, but according to course superintendent James Osborne, a cool and dry spring has led to many issues with the Bermuda breaking dormancy. The turf density will not be what it was in past years and may nullify any additional rough length. Greens are bentgrass (the same as players will see next week at Oak Hill) and will run at an average of 11.5 on the stimpmeter.

Hole Preview

From the routing of the holes to the bunkering and green complexes, it is a very bland course. Weiskopf has a reputation for building uniform courses that are straightforward and without nuance. TPC Craig Ranch definitely fits this mold. It lacks any memorable or strategic holes with the exception, perhaps, of the driveable par-4 14th.

Weiskopf loved incorporating at least one driveable par-4 in each of his designs. Measuring around 330 yards, the 14th hole forces players to hit a downhill tee shot with water on the left and multiple bunkers surrounding the green. Reaching the green on the tee shot is a challenge, and it should at least provide some excitement during the week. Through the first two years of play, it has a birdie or better rate of 40%.

The front nine is adjacent to the Sam Rayburn Highway while the back nine is located in a residential setting. There are plenty of holes that require distance with three par-5s above 550 yards yet each is reachable in two shots. They hold a Birdie or Better rate of 6% higher than the Tour average when going for the green on the second shot and rate as the fifth easiest on Tour with a scoring average of only 4.59.

The par-3s are really the most challenging section of holes at TPC Craig Ranch. Three of them play over 215 yards and they actually average 0.02 strokes over par. They play as four of the toughest eight holes on the course. Six of the 11 par-4s are over 465 yards. While it seems that their length should lead to tougher scoring, they actually combine to play under par which speaks to the simplicity of this course.

Strokes Gained Analysis

Off the Tee

As can be seen in the chart above, everything off the tee is easier at TPC Craig Ranch. With the lack of hazards and non-penal rough players are free to bomb away with driver. Most of the fairways are routed around the meandering Rowlett Creek and players have little fear of any danger. With the eighth widest fairways on Tour at over 38 yards on average, this course was the seventh easiest to gain strokes off the tee. Because wayward tee shots are rarely penalized it becomes second-shot target practice into the greens.

While distance off the tee is an advantage simply because it allows for shorter approach shots with higher lofted clubs and closer proximity to the hole, accurate drivers who are not bombers have had plenty of high finishes on the leaderboard. Two-time winner K.H. Lee has ranked in the middle of the pack in driving distance while other shorter hitters like Seamus Power, Matt Kuchar, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout have also had high finishes. Seven of the top 14 on the leaderboard last year actually lost to the field in driving distance.

Approach

On approach, 36.4% of shots have come from 200+ yards. That is 10% more than the Tour average from that range. Not only is the Greens in Regulation rate 5% easier than average but the GIR rate when missing the fairway is one of the highest on Tour at 59% With the 12th largest greens, proximity to the hole numbers are a little further than normal, but the ease of putting on these greens cancels out that slight difficulty.

Because it is so easy to gain strokes off the tee, this becomes an ultimate second-shot course. Overall, TPC Craig Ranch was the 3rd easiest course to gain strokes on approach in 2021. In 2021, the top eight players in SG: Approach finished within the top-17 on the leaderboard. And last year, eight of the top 11 in approach finished in the top-17 overall.

Around the Green and Putting

With players hitting the greens at a 70% clip, even those missing the greens have little to worry about when scrambling for par. These are not difficult green complexes by any means. There is very little contour and the rough surrounding them is not much of an issue. Scrambling and around the green play rate as the easiest on Tour.

Similar to around-the-green play, putting on these smooth bentgrass greens was the third easiest to gain strokes on Tour. Everything from one-putt percentage to three-putt avoidance ranks as very easy. With so many players hitting greens at a high rate this will ultimately turn into a putting contest. While putting is uncomplicated here, targeting players who have the ability to get streaky hot with their flat stick, especially on bentgrass greens, is something to strongly consider.

Most Important Stats For Success at the AT&T Byron Nelson

*In order of importance

• SG: APP
• Birdie or Better %
• Proximity 200+
• SG: Putting (Bent)
• Par 4 Scoring 450+
• Par 5 Scoring
• Driving Distance
• Good Drive %
• SG: Long/Easy Scoring Courses
• SG: Weak Field Events

Early Weather Forecast – McKinney, Texas