HomeGolf Betting2023 American Express Preview

2023 American Express Preview

Ron Klos

Ron Klos

3 years ago

3 years ago

2023 American Express Preview

With the “Aloha Swing” concluded, the PGA Tour returns to the mainland as players make a trip to the Coachella Valley desert in La Quinta, California for The American Express at PGA West. This is a very unique event for a number of reasons. First, this tournament is actually part of a Pro-Am where each pro tees off with an amateur for the first three rounds of the tournament. Another difference is that three different courses will be in use instead of the typical single course. Finally, the cut will take place after 54 holes have been completed on Saturday, instead of the usual 36-hole cut on Friday. It will be the top 65 and ties who make it through to Sunday’s final round on the Stadium Course.

Along with the Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club are the other venues in play for this week. The latter two courses are among the five easiest on Tour, which makes very low-scoring rounds the norm. Players will tee off on those two courses only one time. After more than 50 years of course changes, the current rotation of courses has been the same since 2016.

All of the courses being utilized do share some of the same characteristics. Each has four scoreable par-5s and is under 7,200 yards. Each has poa trivialis greens and ryegrass fairways surrounded by non-penal dormant Bermuda rough. Each is also amongst the easiest annual courses in the PGA Tour rotation.

The Stadium Course is the toughest of the three and will be used for two of the four rounds. It is a Pete Dye design featuring smaller greens, plenty of bunkers and seven holes with water danger to contend with. Another reason the winning score usually ends up in the 25-under range is that all three are resort-style courses with pin placements made intentionally easy for the amateurs that are playing. It is a tournament where all different styles of players can thrive and those with the hottest flat stick in the inevitable putting contest are usually rewarded.

The Field

Ten of the top 19 players in the world rankings are set to tee it up in the California desert at the American Express in what might be the best field ever assembled here. The headliners include #2 Scottie Scheffler, #4 Patrick Cantlay, #5 Jon Rahm, #6 Xander Schauffele and #7 Will Zalatoris. Also in attendance are a pair of three-time winners from last season, Tony Finau and Sam Burns. Other notables include Tom Kim, Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, Aaron Wise, Taylor Montgomery, Jason Day, Sahith Theegala and Taylor Pendrith.

For the first three rounds, players will be paired with an “amateur”. They could be celebrities, professional athletes, CEOs of companies, or someone you have never heard of who thought it would be a great idea to fork over $30,000 to take part in the event. While most PGA players love the conditions of the courses and the weather, they also despise the format and having to play most pro-ams in general. The main reason for this is how long rounds tend to take with an amateur basically tagging along and hacking their way around the course.

Stadium Course History

The Stadium Course at PGA West was designed by Pete Dye in 1986 and was created as a sequel to the TPC at Sawgrass. It was inspired by the Scottish links-style courses even though it shares relatively few characteristics with links courses.

Dye was given simple instructions when tasked when building the Stadium Course. “Build the hardest damn golf course in the world,” developers Ernie Vossler and Joe Walser told him. Dye indeed was up to the task as when it opened, its course rating of 77.1 was the highest ever given by the United States Golf Association.

Famous for its dramatic features, including railroad ties, penal hazards, cavernous bunkers, and long forced carries over water, the course is not for the faint-hearted. As Dye wrote in his autobiography, “Length alone would not be the ultimate test for the new course, but I believed strategic hazards, deep bunkers, difficult angles across fairways, slightly offset greens, parallel lakes and desert plants, when combined with cross-current winds, could provide the type of course Joe and Ernie expected.”

When it opened, it was one of the first venues for the popular “Skins” game which was a televised 4-ball match were some of the best players competed against each other in 4-ball matches.

In 1987 the course made its PGA debut by hosting the annual Bob Hope Classic. In what had typically been an easy course setup, players were shocked to see an actual challenge in front of them. Players vociferously voiced their opinions on the course. Raymond Floyd called it “spiteful” and “hateful.” Tom Watson said he was “sick and tired” of Dye’s radical designs. “It requires you to execute shots that no sane golfer should be expected to play,” Watson added. Al Geiberger said that the Stadium Course was like “working through the stages of grief”.

Dye responded, “The professionals forget that the whole idea of a Pete Dye golf course is to require players to hit a wide variety of shots. I’ve always felt that a good player who’s playing well wants to play a difficult golf course because he knows the winner won’t be someone who can just out-putt him.” Dye wanted to truly challenge the best players in the world and to give them a chance to display their amazing skills. As he once said about his style, “We’re just giving them the opportunities to hit great golf shots.”

The PGA Tour professionals were so adamant about how unfair the course was that they actually united together and signed a petition to get it removed as one of the host courses. Believe it or not, they were successful as the course was banned from Tour play until it returned to the rotation in 2016.

In the summer of 2022, the course underwent extensive renovations in which the greens were regrassed to TifEagle Bermuda and changed back to their original sizes and contouring which had been lost over the years. Also, more than 200 trees from the interior of the course were removed, possibly changing some of the lines that golfers with previous history on the course are used to playing.

Past Leaderboards/Weather

Finish Position and Strokes Gained Course(s) History (2015-2022)

The Stadium Course at PGA West

*With two of the guaranteed rounds not even using ShotLink/Strokes Gained data, there will not be any stat correlations for this event. Those putting it out there are basically only showing half the story, which, in my humble opinion, is none of the story because of how incomplete the data is.

Designed in 1986 by legendary architect Pete Dye, The Stadium Course is clearly the toughest of the three courses and will be played by golfers twice this week. Mirrored after TPC Sawgrass, it has seven holes with water directly in play, including its very own Par-3, 17th-hole island green. It is a definite “risk-reward” type of course that will yield a ton of birdies but also some “blow-up” rounds as well.

The course is known for Dye’s memorable finishing stretch of holes, numbers 16-18. He called these final three holes “maybe the most difficult finishing holes I’ve ever built.” Included is the infamous “San Andreas” hole (#16) which has a greenside bunker over 20 feet deep that runs at least 50 yards up the left side of the green.

At only 7,187 yards, the Stadium Course is the 11th shortest on Tour. Two of the par-5s stretch out beyond 590 yards, but other than that, Tour players have the length to overpower the forced carries as well as many of the shorter holes on the course such as the four par-4s that are each less than 390 yards.

Success can be had by bombing it off the tee, but if golfers do not miss in the right spot, water and sand lurk everywhere. Stadium Club averages the ninth most penalties off the tee out of all the Tour courses played since 2015. The Driving Accuracy rate of 63% is only slightly easier than the Tour average. Players will need to be cautious on numerous holes and lay back off the tee to avoid danger.

Along with the very difficult bunkers that surround the small greens and some fairways, the challenging Par-5s are also one of the course’s biggest areas of defense. Players “Going for the Green” on their second shot are often met with trouble if not long enough off the tee and super accurate on approach. While distance is an advantage on this course, players will need to use good judgment.

Most of the Par-4s here are “less-than-driver” holes due to tight fairways and the strategically placed bunkers. Strong wedge play from 125 yards and closer is paramount for those who take a more aggressive approach off the tee. Almost half of all approaches come from the 125-200 yard range. Not only are the greens the 6th smallest on Tour at an average of only 5,000 square feet, but many are elevated and will repel approaches that are not hit on the right length or line.

While sand saves rates around the green are among the toughest on Tour, scrambling from the almost non-existent rough is the easiest. One important note about the grasses at all three courses is that the Bermuda grass lies dormant this time of year. Fairways and rough are overseeded ryegrass and the greens are overseeded with Poa trivialis. As eight-year PGA Tour caddie, Brian Mull commented, “It’s nothing like Poa annua. They’re like perfect greens, pure carpet…can be a little sticky, not fast, and with minimal grain. Anybody can putt well on them.”

Nicklaus Tournament Course

Designed by legendary golfer, Jack Nicklaus, and opened in 1986, the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West joined the rotation for The American Express in 2016. Golfers will play this course just once this week. Two years ago, this course played the most difficult that it ever has after they installed new Bermuda grass and expanded the greens back to their original shapes and sizes. Greens were much firmer and some of the scoring ease was mitigated. Last year it was closer to its average of -2.11 strokes under par on average per round. Overall it is the fifth easiest course on Tour.

Not a lot of strategy is required as it weaves its way through the retirement community homes. Most of the danger off the tee and on approach is very avoidable thanks to the huge fairways and the ability of most Tour professionals to hit over or around any of the six water hazards. The elevated greens require accurate approach shots. The biggest challenge here is that playing around the greens is much more demanding than the other two courses. Much of that is thanks to the deep bunkers which will test players’ sand skills. Great iron play and short-game are the important components to success at the Nicklaus Tournament Course.

Three of the four Par-5s sit under 550 yards so you can expect birdies and eagle shots to fly off the shelves here. Each of the Par-5s offer risk/reward opportunities and measure at less than 570 yards, meaning plenty of scoring chances will be the norm. With many shorter Par-4s, positive short-iron and wedge play is vital for setting up shorter birdie putts on these massive greens. The signature hole is the par-5 15th which has an island green that is guarded by both the surrounding water hazard and two large bunkers. The huge, undulating double-green that serves the 9th and 18th holes is a well-known feature on the course and is guarded by more deep bunkers.

La Quinta County Club

This is the oldest course used in The American Express and will also be played just once this week. La Quinta is an “old-school” course that opened in 1959. It was designed by Lawrence Hughes, and even with a renovation in 1999, plays much the same it did when it first opened 64 years ago.

It has the current distinction of being the easiest layout on Tour, averaging 2.83 shots under par since 2016. Adam Hadwin shot a 59 here back in 2017. It sports narrow fairways, non-penal rough, reachable Par-5s, and what Phil Mickelson described as, “the best greens on Tour.” At 7,060 yards, the par-72 course is also the 6th shortest on Tour.

There are no tricks or subtleties at La Quinta. The course is straightforward with everything in front of you. With almost nothing at all to challenge players, simply put, La Quinta is a place where if golfers don’t shoot multiple shots under par they are losing serious ground to the field. With the fifth smallest greens (less than 5,000 square feet), strong iron play will be one of the differentiators for players to separate themselves here.

Most Important Stats For Success at The American Express

*In order of importance

  • Birdie or Better %
  • SG: APP
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • SG: Putting
  • Scoring Chances Inside 15 Feet
  • Proximity 125-200 yds
  • SG: Easy Scoring Courses
  • Par 4: 350-450
  • SG: ARG
  • Par 3 Scoring

Early Weather Forecast – La Quinta, CA

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