2022 Valero Texas Open Betting Card Preview

The Valero Texas Open is the calm before next week’s storm at Augusta National. While most of the world’s elite are skipping the trip to San Antonio, we still have a respectable field teeing it up at The Oaks Course this week, with eight of the world’s top 50 in Texas for this week’s Masters tune-up.

I find this event difficult to handicap. There’s data that will show that this course is difficult, and bombers have a distinct advantage, but we’ve seen shorter, more accurate drivers of the golf ball succeed here as well. We’ve also seen increasingly low numbers win this event. That flies in the face of the perceived difficulty of this course, especially when you consider that the field is not quite as strong as your average Tour event. 

Motivation is also a factor, especially at the top of the board. Rory McIlroy decided to skip last week’s event and come to San Antonio to get ready. Hideki Matsuyama is the defending Masters champion but hasn’t played in weeks due to the neck and back issues that have plagued him for over a month. Bryson DeChambeau returned from a long hiatus last week in Austin but has stated that he’s not firing on all cylinders yet, he’s merely knocking the dust off before heading to Augusta. It makes for an interesting week.

The variable at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course, like most Texas courses, is the wind. The early forecast calls for steady winds throughout, with no distinct advantage to the AM/PM waves on Thursday and Friday, but check back as we approach Thursday.

Past Winners at TPC San Antonio

• 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
• 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
• 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
• 2017: Kevin Chappel (-12)
• 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)
• 2015: Jimmy Walker (-11)

In this space, I want to touch on the players I’m targeting this week and share my opinion on the best way to bet them at this event. 

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Outright Betting Pick

Jhonattan Vegas

I’m really tempted by the lingering 28/1’s available on the market for DeChambeau, and after talking with Andy and Geoff on Tuesday’s betting show, I think he’ll be added to my card. But for now, we move forward with Jhonnatan Vegas, who I booked on Monday at 60/1. 

Vegas fits the archetype I’m targeting this week- upper-echelon ball-strikers with plus distance. He’s 12th in this field in Strokes gained ball-striking (SG: BS) over the past three months due to the massive strides with his irons, and he’s shockingly not a disaster on the greens right now. He’s gained strokes putting in three straight measured events, and he’s coming off of a T4 last week in Puntacana, which would be difficult to do without a strong putting performance. It’s also encouraging to see the former Texas Longhorn play well in the wind since that might come into play again this week. His best finish here is 30th, so this is a significant stretch, but he’s arguably playing the best golf of his career, and the price is right. FanDuel has moved him to 42, but BetMGM and DraftKings have 55 available as I write.

Finishing Position Bets

T5

Gary Woodland

With Woodland’s Kansas Jayhawks one win away from the college hoops national championship game, this is trending towards being a pretty Pro-Woodland week. Now, we might want to back out of this or bet against him on Sunday if Rock Chalk is upended by Villanova on Saturday but watch this space. Narratives aside, Woodland is playing well right now, ranking 14th in this field in SG: BS over the past three months. He hasn’t made the trip to San Antonio often, but he came here last year completely devoid of anything resembling good form and found himself inside the top 10 when the dust settled. He bagged back-to-back top-five finishes in Florida, and I think he’s live to do so again. FanDuel is the most generous, offering +750 on Woodland’s T5.

T10

Chris Kirk

Kirk has a strange history here, mixing in top 10’s and missed cuts, but his recent form leads me to back him at +333 on PointsBet for a repeat of the former. He’s fifth in this field in total strokes gained per round over the past three months, and while his putter runs hot and cold like most players, he’s one of the more consistent players in this field. Before getting caught on the wrong side of the weather wave at The PLAYERS, Kirk ran off three straight strong starts at the Waste Management (T14), Honda Classic (T7), and Arnold Palmer Invitational (T5). 

T20

Brendan Steele

I’m looking for Brendan Steele to bottle his recent approach performances at API and The PLAYERS. The driver is an absolute weapon in his hands right now, leading this field in SG: OTT over the past three months, but it led to a string of missed cuts because the rest of his game was a mess. The putting is never easy to swallow, but he gained 0.87 strokes per round on approach at API and backed it up with 1.24 strokes per round at The PLAYERS, and that’ll play anywhere. He’s hitting bombs and finding fairways, and if that translates to greens again this week in Texas, he’ll pay off his +280 T20 price on PointsBet.

T30

Adam Hadwin

I know it’s fun to chase big numbers in golf betting, but I love getting plus-money on good golfers to finish well, and that’s what we have here with Adam Hadwin at +115 on FanDuel. If we asked Adam Hadwin, I’m not sure that he’d even consider a top 30 finish here as ‘finishing well’- but that’s all we need from him here. On the back of elite ball-striking, Hadwin heads to San Antonio with consecutive finishes inside the top 10. Over the last three months, he ranks fifth in this field in SG: APP and 11th in SG: BS. He finished 23rd here last year, and he wasn’t in near the form that he’s in heading into this week.

T40

Austin Smotherman

Playing on the PGA Tour for the first time this season, Austin Smotherman has shown well to date on tougher tracks and loaded fields. His recent iron play is what originally caught my attention, but he’s also long off the tee and got a taste of this track back in 2020 when he finished fourth here at the Korn Ferry Tour’s TPC San Antonio Championship. Sneaking inside the top 40 isn’t a big ask in a light field, but at +400 on FanDuel, the reward is worth it.

Head-to-Head 72-hole Matchup

Mito Pereira (-120; ties void) over Sahith Theegala

I’m bullish on Theegala long-term, but I like what we’ve seen from Pereira of late, and this course suits him really well. His irons are in form, gaining on approach in five straight starts, and he’s dialed in with his wedges, which come into play here due to the long three-shot Par-5s. Also, his distance off the tee is a plus as well. Theegala hasn’t put together four solid rounds since tasting smoke on Sunday at the Waste Management, and I think he could play well this week and still lose to Mito.

To Miss The Cut

Charley Hoffman

I understand the course history. You can make a case that Hoffman’s history at this event is as good as any Tour pro anywhere (not named Tiger Woods). Hoffman has played and made the cut here for 15 straight years, finishing inside the top 13 in 12 of those 15 starts. That’s truly incredible. So why would I bet him to do something that he’s never done here before? He’s been soooo bad.

Hoffman’s been dealing with injuries, but he’s missed the cut in four of his past six starts, and his year-over-year stats are not encouraging. Last year, Hoffman was rock-solid with his irons, gaining 0.72 strokes per round on approach. This season, Hoffman is losing 0.31 strokes per round on approach, and nearly 1.5 strokes per round tee-to-green. It’s just not good enough. This is posted at FanDuel at +134, and inflated by the storied course history.

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