2022 U.S. Open Betting Card Preview
Ryan Noonan
4 years ago
Last week was a busy one in the world of professional golf. The drama surrounding the Saudi-backed LIV Golf event, and all that it entails, was ultimately topped on Sunday in Canada. A terrific final round at the RBC Canadian Open featured a handful of the world’s best near the top of the leaderboard, which I’m sure was the PGA Tour’s wet dream scenario. I’m sure anti-LIV poster boy Rory McIlroy winning was just the cherry on the sundae.
Last week was a great appetizer to this week’s four-course Michelin Star meal in Brookline, Massachusetts. The Country Club, just outside of Boston, plays host to the 122nd edition of the U.S. Open. It’s one of the original five charter clubs that founded the USGA and has played host to multiple majors along with the infamous 1999 Ryder Cup, won by the United States in dramatic fashion.
As was the case at last month’s PGA Championship at Southern Hills, Gil Hanse and his team recently gave The Country Club a facelift. They helped expose the rugged New England terrain and natural roll of the rock outcroppings and landing areas off the tee. They also re-introduced a short Par-3, hole 11, by adjusting the ever-evolving championship routing and pulling from other holes on the property. This hole will make the 7th at Pebble Beach feel long. As a result, Brookline will feature forced layups, blind shots, thick U.S. Open rough, and firm, contoured Toyota Prius-sized greens. As always, check out Ron‘s course preview for more details. This back-9 is going to provide some incredible viewing experiences.
In recent years, U.S. Open winners have come from the top of the betting board. Brookline will test a golfer’s patience and skill like no other event has this season. An elite off-the-tee game is crucial this week, and I’m giving strokes gained off-the-tee (SG: OTT) and Good Drive% as much weight as strokes gained approach (SG: APP) this week, which is not usually the case. Scrambling will likely look different here because wayward tee shots may force golfers to chip sideways onto the fairway instead of at the green, so I’m looking for good wedge players inside 100 yards and elite around the green (SG: ARG) skills whenever possible.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on! I will likely add a big gun at the top of the board on Thursday AM before the late wave tees off, but you’ll have to be in our Discord to get that play.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Tournament odds for majors are posted way in advance compared to normal weeks, so I fired at this board last Friday, and Discord members were able to get down on these early lines when I posted the plays last week. Stop missing out.
Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s U.S. Open Targets
Will Zalatoris
No, Will Zalatoris has not yet won a golf tournament since turning pro. But we’re in the forecasting business here, and all of the buying signs continue to burn bright for Willy Z, so I’ll continue to back him. He’s first in this field in strokes gained ball-striking (SG: BS) over the past 50 rounds, ranking fourth in both SG: APP and SG: OTT over the same time frame. Last month’s playoff loss at the PGA Championship was Zalatoris’s fifth T8 or better in seven major starts since turning pro, and he’s finished T6 or better in five of his last seven starts overall. It’s only a matter of when with Zalatoris.
- Win: 35/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +100 BetMGM
Cameron Young
With a premium placed on elite driving this week, Cameron Young is one of the first names that comes to mind for me. He’s sixth on the Tour in Total Driving and 2nd in this field in SG: OTT over the past 50 rounds. He had gained strokes in 11 straight rounds until a rough weekend at The Memorial, but the shoo-in rookie of the year pick has played his best golf at the Tour’s most demanding course against the deepest fields. He’s bagged T20 or better at Torrey Pines (Farmers), Riviera (Genesis), PGA National (Honda), Bay Hill (API), Harbour Town (Heritage), TPC Potomac (Wells Fargo), and Southern Hills (PGA Championship). But, like his Wake Forest teammate, Will Zalatoris, just because he hasn’t won yet doesn’t mean you should cross him off your list this week. The 70’s are gone in the outright market, but I’d confidently bet him to finish inside the top 20.
Sam Burns
Sam Burns has entered a stratosphere among his peers where few reside, a spot where his game is fit for any style of golf course because he’s above-average at all phases of the game. He’s long and accurate off the tee but can win this event if the recipe calls for scrambling and putting prowess. Statistically, Burns ranks inside the top 20 over the past 50 rounds in SG: APP, SG: Putting, SG: T2G, and Bogey Avoidance. He fired back-to-back 65’s in Canada last weekend, and it was barely a blip on the radar. I took him at 40/1, but I think low-30s will be available before he tees off on Thursday afternoon.
- Win: 40/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +100 BetMGM
Max Homa
Nothing but ‘brand’ guys on the card for me this week. Max Homa has played his best golf on the Tour’s toughest tracks this season, including his T5 last time out at the Memorial. He’s coming off of his best finish at a major last time out at Southern Hills, and his game is best suited for U.S. Open-style setups. Over the past 50 rounds, he ranks 23rd in this field in SG: T2G while also cracking the top 12 in SG: P. He’s also one of the best wedge players in the world, and with the long rough and forced layups at The Country Club, I expect that to weigh heavily this week.
Sungjae Im
I have FOMO from not betting Sungjae at 66/1 in the futures market last week. A lot of smart folks did, and now he’s as short as 35/1 in some markets, which is significant steam. He’s a projection modeling dream this week. Over the past 50 rounds, Im has ranked inside the top 10 in SG: OTT, SG: ARG, SG: T2G, Good Drive%, and Bogey Avoidance. That’s basically all the key metrics for the week. I’ll likely add him to my outright card, but I’ll employ the live betting strategy that I laid out here since he has a Thursday afternoon tee time.
- Win: Adding live Thursday AM
- T20: +150 BetMGM
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Daniel Berger and Aaron Wise T40 (+220)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one is, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
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Featured Image – Sam Greenwood/Getty Images