2022 RBC Canadian Open Betting Picks Preview

Nestled among the tree-lined streets of Toronto’s west end sits a classic course that has stood the test of time. St. George’s Golf and Country Club, home of the 2022 RBC Canadian Open, was designed in 1929 by famed Canadian golf architect Stanley Thompson, who took advantage of the natural contours and the wooded valleys to create a strategic course that is not only scenic to behold but one that has excellent golfing character.

Ranked as the 23rd best course in the world by Golf Digest in 2020, it has hosted the Canadian Open five times, including most recently in 2010. As the final event leading up to next week’s U.S. Open, it will present a good warm-up test for the 15 players scheduled to play at the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. St. George’s is also a par-70 course with long and challenging par-4s, thick rough and eccentricity with blind shots and elevation changes.

Headlined by world number one and Masters champion Scottie Scheffler, a solid field will head to the Great White North for the first RBC Canadian Open event since 2019. Among the other notables vying for the $1.4 million winner’s cheque include Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Sam Burns, and Matt Fitzpatrick. The field is definitely on the top-heavy side and is quite weak down on the lower end.

The tournament was canceled the past two years due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It was first played 118 years ago in 1904, and is the third oldest continuously running tournament on the PGA Tour after The Open Championship and the U.S. Open. Also of note, a Canadian has not won this event since 1958. Most of the top Canadians on the PGA Tour will attempt to change that this week including the likes of Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin and Mackenzie Hughes.

Keys to Success

With a top-heavy field and a middle tier that is severely lacking in win equity, there is just not as much quality for outright selections. I actually believe that the opposite is true for finishing position picks. With so many lower-class players filling out the bottom half of the field, I have more confidence in the quality behind my finishing picks, and especially my top-40 selections. In the upper tier, you can make a strong outright case for each of the top seven players from Scheffler through Lowry. With odds so short, and the potential for many of these high-class players to be looking ahead to next week’s U.S. Open, this is definitely a week for a longshot to win.

One of the reasons I’m targeting more longshots than usual is that this is a course where nobody has an edge with course history. I believe this levels out the playing field to a degree because players don’t have the experience on where to miss on the greens or how putts break from certain locations, or which lines to take off the tee. This typically brings more players into the mix and allow for a good chance for a longshot type to break through.

From a stat profile standpoint, I’m looking for players who are accurate off the tee in avoiding the thick (and wet) 3.5-inch rough but who also can add some distance. Total driving, which combines both of these metrics, is a stat that comprises part of my Off the Tee model. I’m targeting shotmakers and plodders. Players like Brendon Todd, and Aaron Rai are excellent Top-40 betting values. I’m also looking at the players that are elite in approaching these tiny greens. I’ve included a sub-model that includes a SG: Total ranking of past performance on other courses with sub-5,000 square foot greens. Finally, with so many players potentially missing greens this week I’m also looking to bet on players who are good around the greens and can scramble and save par. With 104 bunkers, including many of them tightly packed around these green complexes, sand saves are actually incorporated into the model this week as well.

Toronto, Ontario Weather Forecast (June 9-June 12)

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

• SG: APP
• Scrambling
• Total Driving
• SG: ARG
• Birdie or Better %
• Good Drive %
• Bogeys Avoided
• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards
• SG: Putting 5-15 ft
• Par 5 Scoring