2022 John Deere Classic Betting Picks Preview

After a couple of weeks in the Northeast, the PGA Tour heads to the Midwest along the banks of the Rock River near the Illinois and Iowa border for the John Deere Classic played at TPC Deere Run. Beginning in 1971 as the Quad Cities Open, the event moved to its current home, TPC Deere Run, in 2000. Other than the Covid-affected year of 2021, the event has been a consistent presence on the Tour schedule.

In what typically ends up as a putting contest that culminates in a shootout, TPC Deere Run is a course with wide fairways, receptive greens, and relatively simple putting surfaces. It is very scoreable for players who excel at managing their way strategically around the course instead of trying to overpower it. It’s no surprise then to see that winners have eclipsed the 18-under mark in each of the last 12 tournaments. Players should be ready to make birdies from their opening hole or prepare to trunk-slam their way out of Illinois by Friday evening.

The Field

The strength of the field is usually among the weakest on Tour given the event’s traditional place on the schedule the week before the Open Championship. That has been worsened even further this year after the 2022 schedule was adjusted to include the Scottish Open the week before the Open Championship as a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. With most of the top players choosing to rest for a week before heading overseas, combined with the ever-growing LIV Tour’s roster, the cupboard is very empty for the John Deere Classic.

Daniel Berger stands alone as the only world top-25 player in the field. After Berger, Webb Simpson checks in at 58th, followed by Sahith Theegala at 66th and Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 75th. Those are the four players in attendance from the OWGR top-75. Past winners of this event in the field include last year’s champion, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Ryan Moore, Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker.

Keys to Success

In analyzing past winners at the John Deere Classic two key things stick out to focus on for selecting both the outright winner and finishing position bets – wedge play and putting. Players like Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker have a combined five wins here over the past 11 events. Finding the best wedge players is simple. In the model this week much of the Approach section is weighted towards the best from the proximity range of 75-150 yards. With 42% of approaches coming from that range, many of the past contenders here were ranked high in that split.