2022 BMW Championship Round 3 Betting and Showdown Picks

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• Kurt Kitayama – 3 shots back (+10000 BetRivers) – Yes, he made everything with his putter on Friday, gaining 3.75 with the flat stick, but he is positive ball-striking through two rounds and is only three shots off the lead. And it’s not like he doesn’t have any recent experience of being in contention on the weekend. He finished 3rd at the Honda, 2nd in the Mexico Open, and 2nd at the Scottish Open last month.
• Sam Burns – 4 shots back (+4000 BetRivers) – Being four shots off the lead with two rounds to play is literally nothing for Burns. One of the streakiest players on Tour, he could easily shoot a 65 tomorrow and be challenging for the lead. Even with his ball-striking not being up to far through two rounds, with four wins under his belt in the past 15 months, he is worth a small play at this price.
• Xander Schauffele – 2 shots back (+1200 FanDuel) – Second to only Corey Conners in ball-striking through two rounds, Schauffele was on fire with his irons on Thursday, gaining 2.76 on approach. He also lost 1.67 with the putter which is typically one of his strengths. He leads the list of players with the most room to improve his score if his putter heats up.

Weather Forecast – Wilmington, DE

For DraftKings Showdown lineups, the last few groups of leaders might be affected by the increasing wind around 4:00. Round 2 saw the early morning wave only have a 0.15 stroke advantage. Overall, slight edge to early golfers but nothing I would be intentionally building lineups around.

Round 3 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.